Changeability of global production networks: an approach for multi-objective decision making

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The goal of the proposed research project is to develop a model for the determination of need for change and timing of global production networks due to multidimensional uncertainty during a long-term planning horizon. This model has to integrate several objective criteria, such as total cost, delivery time, quality, sustainability etc. and to propose the best configuration of the global production network. Production in a global production network has to deal with various production steps, manifold manufacturing resources in different regions with different characteristics (such as wages, employee qualifications). Therefore the methodology must provide an appropriate detailing of the considered network objects which can be both historically grown or a planning of possible future alternatives. For the evaluation company-specific drivers and their trends over the planning horizon are relevant. Especially indirectly and directly measurable change drivers have to be considered. A major result of the method is the prediction of the point in time of a conversion of an existing network configuration into a future network configuration which fits better in the observed long-term planning horizon. Therefore the required need for change and the costs for migration have to be taken into account. Such optimization results can only be used as practical decision support if the results are presented in a transparent way. However, a comprehensive visualization of the results in the context of a statistical data base and a stochastic system behavior is crucial.