Evolution and predictability of storm structure during extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (A04)

研究了从热带气旋内核对流到风暴尺度结构的预报不确定性的高级化增长，重点研究了环境空气与内核对流的相互作用以及热带气旋与上游槽的相互作用。将对选定的情况进行允许对流的模拟。基于数据挖掘和可视化技术，将开发新的方法来诊断环境空气的入侵。通过新的诊断方法获得的结果将对温带过渡的复杂动力学和相关的可预测性产生新的见解。

The upscale growth of forecast uncertainty from the convection in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the storm-scale structure will be investigated, with a special focus on interactions of environmental air with inner-core convection and of the cyclone with the upstream trough. Ensembles of convection-permitting simulations will be performed for selected cases . Based on data mining and visualization techniques, new methods will be developed to diagnose the intrusion of environmental air. Results obtained by the novel diagnostics will yield new insight into the complex dynamics of extratropical transition and the associated predictability.