RAPID: Meteorology and Predictability of the August 2023 Maui Wildfires

本项目将描述2023年8月毛伊岛野火的气象条件和可预测性。重要的科学工作包括确定地形的作用，先前气候条件的贡献，以及澄清该事件的天气模式的技能。了解2023年毛伊岛野火的气象学对于警告和保护毛伊岛和夏威夷群岛的人口至关重要。该项目的研究结果将有助于更好地制定有关毛伊岛野火的决策，包括关于控制电力基础设施、促进疏散、警告人口以及加强适应/土地管理决策以减少威胁的指导性决策。此外，在研究这一事件中获得的见解应该加强整个夏威夷的野火决策，并为美国其他地区的野火提供有用的指导。该项目将检查毛伊岛火灾的气象起源，包括地形诱发的天气特征的作用，如高振幅山波和下坡风暴，控制当地天气特征的大尺度气流的性质，飓风多拉南下的作用，以及之前的气候条件的贡献。它将阐明产生如此不寻常的灾难性事件所需的气象因素。本研究还将检查此类事件的天气预报模型的可预测性，所需的模型分辨率和物理特性，以提供熟练的预测，并研究毛伊岛西部以前的野火和强风案例，以深入了解该地区以前野火/强风事件的频率以及与之相关的气象。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will describe the meteorological conditions and predictability of the August 2023 Maui wildfires. Important scientific work includes determining the role of terrain, the contributions of the preceding climatological conditions, and clarifying the skill of weather models for this event. Understanding the meteorology of the 2023 Maui wildfire is critical for warning and protecting the population of Maui and the Hawaiian Islands. The findings of this project should lead to better decision-making regarding Maui wildfires, including guiding decisions regarding controlling power infrastructure, facilitating evacuations, warning the population, and enhancing adaptation/land-management decisions to reduce the threat. Furthermore, the insights gained in studying this event should enhance wildfire decision-making for all of Hawaii, and provide guidance useful for wildfires in other areas of the U.S. This project will examine the meteorological origins of the Maui fires including the role of terrain-induced weather features, such as high-amplitude mountain waves and downslope windstorms, the nature of the large-scale flow controlling the local weather features, the role of the passage of Hurricane Dora to the south, and the contribution of antecedent climatological conditions. It will clarify the meteorological ingredients required to produce such an unusual catastrophic event. This study will also examine the predictability of weather prediction models for such event, the required model resolution and physics to provide skillful predictions, and study prior cases of wildfire and strong winds across western Maui, to gain insights into the frequency of previous wildfire/strong wind events in the region and the meteorology associated with them.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.