Causal effects of wage subsidies on labor supply and labor demand

德国劳动力市场有一项普遍的工资补贴，为750多万人提供支持，条件是每月收入不超过450欧元。补贴的既定目标是为失业工人提供重返劳动力市场的垫脚石，为难以安置的工人创造就业机会，减少兼职和小工作的官僚主义。这项补贴的广泛使用表明，它在经济上对雇主和工人都有吸引力。与此同时，我们对这一工具是否能有效地实现其目标、它是否具有有害的副作用以及它是否会将劳动力挤出劳动力市场知之甚少，而劳动力市场的劳动力供应是由补贴劳动力替代的。拟议的项目通过调查微型工作工具对劳动力供给和劳动力需求的因果关系来解决这些悬而未决的问题。更具体地说，(1)我们研究了真正的国家依赖是否将已婚配偶与补贴形式的Minijob就业联系起来。考虑到已婚夫妇所得税中隐含的激励因素，这是一个合理的设想。我们使用来自德国社会经济小组的数据，并估计动态多项逻辑模型来解决这个问题。我们研究(2)参与小工作是否确实为失业工人提供了垫脚石。我们应用丰富的行政数据（SIAB）来确定倾向评分匹配框架内的因果处理效果，并单独研究以前失业的过渡模式。最后，(3)我们询问当补贴类型的就业改变价格时，雇主是否以及如何调整其劳动力需求模式。在这里，我们利用大量的行政和基于调查的企业层面数据集（建立历史面板和建立面板）来描述随着时间的推移的发展和劳动力需求组成，然后确定替代模式和成本变化对不同类型就业（例如，迷你工作，全职或兼职）的工人存量和流动的可能影响。三个子项目中的每一个都提出了原创性的研究问题，并应用适当的研究设计来提高知识水平，并以创新的方式扩展国内和国际文献。拟议的项目受益于数据源的可用性，这些数据源在样本量、信息的丰富性和可靠性方面在国际上是杰出的。每个子项目除了单纯的科学兴趣外，还具有社会和经济意义；研究目标可以在提议的框架和已有的数据中实现。

The German labor market features a general wage subsidy, which supports more than 7.5 million individuals conditional on not exceeding a monthly earnings threshold of 450 Euros. The stated objectives of the subsidy are to provide a stepping stone for unemployed workers to return to labor market and to generate employment opportunities for hard to place workers, to reduce moonlighting and bureaucracy for minor jobs. The broad utilization of the subsidy suggests that it is economically attractive for employers and workers. At the same time, we know little about whether the instrument is effective in reaching its objectives, whether it features harmful side effects, and whether it crowds workers out of the labor market whose labor supply is substituted by subsidized labor. The proposed project addresses these open issues by investigating the causal effect of the Minijob instrument on labor supply and labor demand. More specifically, (1) we study whether true state dependence ties married spouses to the subsidized forms of Minijob employment. Given the incentives implicit in married couples' income taxation, this is a plausible scenario. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and estimate dynamic multinomial logit models to address this question. We study (2) whether partaking in Minijob employment indeed generates a stepping stone for unemployed workers. We apply rich administrative data (SIAB) to identify causal treatment effects within a propensity score matching framework and separately study transition patterns for the previously unemployed. Finally, (3) we ask whether and how employers adjust their labor demand patterns when subsidized types of employment change prices. Here, we take advantage of vast administrative and survey based firm level datasets (Establishment History Panel and Establishment Panel) to describe the developments and labor demand compositions over time and then to identify substitution patterns and possible effects of cost changes on worker stocks and flows in different types of employment (e.g., Minijob, full-time or part-time).Each of the three subprojects proposes original research questions and applies appropriate research designs to advance the level of knowledge and to extend the national and international literature in innovative ways. The proposed projects benefit from the availability of data sources, which are internationally outstanding in terms of sample size, richness of information, and reliability. Each subproject is socially and economically relevant beyond mere scientific interest; the research objectives can be achieved in the proposed framework and with data that is already available.