Flood forecasting on the mountainous river basin by using the most advanced Multi-parameter radars

利用最先进的多参数雷达进行山区流域洪水预报

• 批准号: 21J15249
• 负责人: 金 和妍
• 金额: $ 0.96万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-28 至 2023-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21J15249/
• 关键词: Guerrilla Heavy Rainfall; Quantitative Risk; Multiple Doppler Radar; Flash Flood Guidance; Early detection; Multiple Doppler radar; Risk Prediction

Guerrilla Heavy Rainfall (GHR), a type of localized heavy rainfall, has caused flash flood disasters in Japan. Predicting the risk of localized heavy rainfall, especially GHR, is crucial for preventing hydro-meteorological disasters and minimizing damage to human life and property. Research in meteorology and hydrology has been conducted to develop methods for accurately predicting and alerting flash floods. Meteorologically, the quantitative risk prediction method was developed for predicting the risk triggered by GHR based on the physical mechanism. By multiple Doppler radar analysis, the variables were estimated. Then, the correlation between the predicted risk level and the variables was founded on the multilinear regression. Hydrologically, flash flood guidance (FFG) was considered to determine the criteria for whether flash floods occur. FFG is the amount of precipitation needed in a specific period to initiate flooding in the watershed. FFG was estimated based on Threshold Runoff (TR) and Soil moisture Deficit (SD) using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). By using topographic and meteorological data, the FFG was estimated on the mixed land use consisting of the rural and urban areas. So, once the FFG has been established, the FFG can issue flash flood warnings without running the entire hydro-meteorological process in the region where flash floods frequently occur. To prevent flash floods, flash flood alerts should be taking into account both the quantitative risk prediction (meteorology) and flash flood warnings (hydrology).

游击队大雨（GHR）是一种局部的大雨，在日本造成了洪水灾难。预测局部大雨，尤其是GHR的风险，对于防止水文灾难并最大程度地减少对人类生命和财产的损害至关重要。已经进行了气象和水文学研究，以开发准确预测和警告山洪的方法。在气象学上，开发了定量风险预测方法，以根据物理机制预测GHR触发的风险。通过多个多普勒雷达分析，估计了变量。然后，预测的风险水平与变量之间的相关性建立在多线性回归上。从水平上讲，山洪指导（FFG）被认为是确定山洪发生的标准。 FFG是在特定时期内需要的降水量来引发流域洪水。使用雨水管理模型（SWMM）根据阈值径流（TR）和土壤水分不足（SD）估算FFG。通过使用地形和气象数据，估计了FFG，估计由农村和城市地区组成的混合土地使用。因此，一旦建立了FFG，FFG就可以发出山洪警告，而无需在经常发生山洪泛滥的地区运行整个水电通行过程。为了防止山洪洪水，应考虑到定量风险预测（气象）和山洪警告（水文学）。

项目成果

Investigation on the effectiveness of Life Cycle of the Guerrilla heavy rainfall for the quantitative prediction method

游击暴雨生命周期定量预测方法有效性研究

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Tomoyasu Maekawa;Hwayeon Kim and Eiichi Nakakita
• 通讯作者: Hwayeon Kim and Eiichi Nakakita

ADVANCES IN THE QUANTITATIVE RISK PREDICTION FOR IMPROVING THE ACCURACY ON THE GUERRILLA HEAVY RAINFALL

提高游击性强降雨风险定量预报的进展

• DOI: 10.2208/jscejhe.77.2_i_1321
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
• 作者: KIM Hwayeon;NAKAKITA Eiichi
• 通讯作者: NAKAKITA Eiichi

ゲリラ豪雨の降雨強度予測におけるライフサイクル概念の有用性に関する研究

生命周期概念在游击暴雨雨强预测中的应用研究

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Tomoyasu Maekawa;Hwayeon Kim and Eiichi Nakakita
• 通讯作者: Hwayeon Kim and Eiichi Nakakita

INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LIFE STAGE IN THE QUANTITATIVE RISK PREDICTION OF GUERRILLA HEAVY RAINFALL

生命阶段在游击强降雨定量风险预测中的有效性研究

• DOI: 10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_i_331
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
• 作者: KIM Hwayeon;前川 智寧;中北 英一
• 通讯作者: 中北 英一

Development of a Quantitative Risk Prediction Method based on Life Cycle of Guerrilla-heavy Rainfall

基于游击性强降雨生命周期的定量风险预测方法开发

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Masaya Taniguchi and Satoshi Tojo;Koji Mineshima;Eiichi Nakakita
• 通讯作者: Eiichi Nakakita