Spatial modelling of individual service choices and their implications for social-ecological transitions

个人服务选择的空间建模及其对社会生态转型的影响

• 批准号: 289919556
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: DITSL GmbH - Deutsches Institut für Tropische und Subtropische Landwirtschaft
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2015-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/289919556?language=en
• 关键词: Spatial; modelling; individual; service; choices

This project seeks to explore the relationships between the locations of individuals along a rural to urban gradient and the choices that they make about livelihoods and the use of ecosystem and non-ecosystem services. During urbanisation, members of a growing human population increasingly prioritise non-ecosystem services over ecosystem services. This is accompanied by population densification, an upscaling of both demand and ecological impacts, and a disconnection of people and ecosystems. Based on spatial models of urban growth and its relationship to agriculture we would like to understand (i) how the rural-urban interface organizes itself, and whether its formation in space follows naturally from simple principles, (ii) whether and how landscape heterogeneity, such as local differences in agricultural potential of soils, affects the pattern and speed of urbanisation, and (iii) whether, and how, cooperative or defective interactions between adjacent communities can influence the formation of the rural-urban interface in developing cities such as Bangalore. We will develop a social-ecological model based on the social-ecological systems framework of Ostrom, starting with a minimal set of rules, which will be combined into a simple spatial model. In particular, we will assume that (i) the population grows and that it must produce sufficient food, (ii) the quantity of food production differs between urban and rural environments, (iii) urbanisation leads to ecological degradation, (iv) people can and will move between adjacent locations, (v) decisions about whether and where to move are based rationally on expected costs and benefits, and (vi) local communities can decide whether or not to allow further settlement in their own location. The model will be used to explore the consequences of these assumptions for the process of progressive urbanisation in the rural-urban interface. Population growth and human movements will be simulated in a spatially structured landscape using a reaction-diffusion model. This will be combined with a game theoretic approach to simulate negotiations between cell inhabitants, e.g. using the hawk-dove game, in which players choose whether to aggressively pursue a good and risk conflict, or to adopt a safer strategy. For instance, the inhabitants of a given neighbourhood may choose to attempt urban expansion (settle agricultural land) while trying to keep the population density low. More complex model versions will be grounded in real data generated within the framework of FOR2432. The goal of the modelling exercise is to explore how human choices and preferences may explain the self-organised formation of spatial patterns and spatial dynamics, such as agricultural expansion on the city perimeter in the context of urbanisation and agriculture. This will allow us to better understand both the conditions under which competitive interactions arise and the conditions under which they increase household vulnerability.

该项目旨在探讨个人沿着从农村到城市的梯度所处的位置与他们就生计和利用生态系统和非生态系统服务所作的选择之间的关系。在城市化过程中，不断增长的人口越来越优先考虑非生态系统服务而不是生态系统服务。伴随而来的是人口密集化、需求和生态影响的升级以及人与生态系统的脱节。基于城市增长的空间模型及其与农业的关系，我们希望了解（i）城乡界面如何组织自身，以及其在空间上的形成是否自然地遵循简单的原则，（ii）景观异质性，如土壤农业潜力的地方差异，是否以及如何影响城市化的模式和速度，以及（iii）是否以及如何，在班加罗尔这样的发展中城市，相邻社区之间的合作或有缺陷的互动会影响城乡交界面的形成。我们将根据奥斯特罗姆的社会生态系统框架开发一个社会生态模型，从一组最小的规则开始，这些规则将被组合成一个简单的空间模型。特别是，我们将假设（i）人口增长，必须生产足够的食物，（ii）城市和农村环境之间的食物生产量不同，（iii）城市化导致生态退化，（iv）人们可以并将在相邻地点之间移动，（v）关于是否移动和移动到哪里的决定是基于预期的成本和收益，以及（vi）当地社区可决定是否允许在其所在地进一步定居。该模型将被用来探讨这些假设的农村-城市界面的渐进城市化过程的后果。人口增长和人员流动将使用反应扩散模型在空间结构景观中进行模拟。这将与博弈论方法相结合，以模拟细胞居民之间的谈判，例如使用鹰鸽游戏，其中玩家选择是否积极追求一个好的和风险的冲突，或采取更安全的策略。例如，某个街区的居民可能会选择尝试城市扩张（定居农业用地），同时试图保持低人口密度。更复杂的模型版本将以在FOR 2432框架内生成的真实的数据为基础。建模工作的目标是探索人类的选择和偏好如何解释空间模式和空间动态的自组织形成，例如在城市化和农业背景下城市周边的农业扩张。这将使我们能够更好地了解竞争性互动产生的条件以及它们增加家庭脆弱性的条件。