Spatial modelling of individual service choices and their implications for social-ecological transitions

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This project seeks to explore the relationships between the locations of individuals along a rural to urban gradient and the choices that they make about livelihoods and the use of ecosystem and non-ecosystem services. During urbanisation, members of a growing human population increasingly prioritise non-ecosystem services over ecosystem services. This is accompanied by population densification, an upscaling of both demand and ecological impacts, and a disconnection of people and ecosystems. Based on spatial models of urban growth and its relationship to agriculture we would like to understand (i) how the rural-urban interface organizes itself, and whether its formation in space follows naturally from simple principles, (ii) whether and how landscape heterogeneity, such as local differences in agricultural potential of soils, affects the pattern and speed of urbanisation, and (iii) whether, and how, cooperative or defective interactions between adjacent communities can influence the formation of the rural-urban interface in developing cities such as Bangalore. We will develop a social-ecological model based on the social-ecological systems framework of Ostrom, starting with a minimal set of rules, which will be combined into a simple spatial model. In particular, we will assume that (i) the population grows and that it must produce sufficient food, (ii) the quantity of food production differs between urban and rural environments, (iii) urbanisation leads to ecological degradation, (iv) people can and will move between adjacent locations, (v) decisions about whether and where to move are based rationally on expected costs and benefits, and (vi) local communities can decide whether or not to allow further settlement in their own location. The model will be used to explore the consequences of these assumptions for the process of progressive urbanisation in the rural-urban interface. Population growth and human movements will be simulated in a spatially structured landscape using a reaction-diffusion model. This will be combined with a game theoretic approach to simulate negotiations between cell inhabitants, e.g. using the hawk-dove game, in which players choose whether to aggressively pursue a good and risk conflict, or to adopt a safer strategy. For instance, the inhabitants of a given neighbourhood may choose to attempt urban expansion (settle agricultural land) while trying to keep the population density low. More complex model versions will be grounded in real data generated within the framework of FOR2432. The goal of the modelling exercise is to explore how human choices and preferences may explain the self-organised formation of spatial patterns and spatial dynamics, such as agricultural expansion on the city perimeter in the context of urbanisation and agriculture. This will allow us to better understand both the conditions under which competitive interactions arise and the conditions under which they increase household vulnerability.