Opportunities for a sustainable food-energy-water future in the Blue Nile Mountains of Ethiopia

埃塞俄比亚的山脉通常被称为非洲的水塔，产生了主要的跨界河流。这些山区的水电开发迅速将其转变为非洲的发电厂。然而，对当地人来说，他们首先是小农场的土地，主要从事自给农业。在气候变化、国家经济快速增长以及人口和土地压力稳步增加的情况下，这些山区及其居民已成为多尺度粮食-能源-水关系的焦点，对整个东非产生重大影响。这里提出的研究是为了产生一个社会生态系统的适应选择和风险分析埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河山脉。我们的核心研究目标是确定解决这一迅速变化的热带山区系统中新出现的粮食-能源-水压力的方案。为此，我们将在地方、区域和国家层面上与利益相关者合作，定义系统组件和动态，确定有利的适应战略，并制定外部强制和本地驱动变化下的可能和可能未来情景。该研究团队包括社会生态系统分析，社会复原力战略，东非生态学和农学，水电开发，农业经济学以及埃塞俄比亚高地的气候和水文学方面的专业知识。利益攸关方包括地方社区组织、河流流域当局和国家发展机构等。这种联系的耦合性和多尺度性要求所有项目团队成员和不同的利益攸关方参与整个研究过程。我们预计，这种方法将产生新的见解，在热带山区环境中的适应战略，并在这里开发的知情的社会生态系统框架可以很容易地转移到其他山区应对气候变化。

The mountains of Ethiopia are often called the water tower of Africa, giving rise to major transboundary rivers. Rapid hydropower development in these mountains is quickly transforming them into the power plant of Africa as well. For local people, however, they are first and foremost a land of small farms, engaged primarily in subsistence agriculture. Under changing climate, rapid national economic growth, and steadily increasing population and land pressures, these mountains and their inhabitants have become the focal point of a multi-scale food-energy-water nexus with significant implications across East Africa. The research proposed here is designed to produce a social-ecological systems analysis of adaptation options and risk profiles for the Ethiopian Blue Nile Mountains. Our core research objective is to identify options to address emerging food-energy-water pressures in this rapidly changing tropical mountain system. To do this, we will engage stakeholders at local, regional, and national level to define system components and dynamics, identify favored adaptation strategies, and develop scenarios of probable and of possible futures under externally forced and locally driven change. The research team includes expertise in social-ecological systems analysis, social resilience strategies, East African ecology and agronomy, hydropower development, agricultural economics, and the climate and hydrology of the Ethiopian highlands. Stakeholders include local community organizations, river basin authorities, and national development agencies, among others. The coupled, multi-scale nature of the nexus requires that all project team members and diverse stakeholders participate throughout the research process. We anticipate that this approach will yield new insights on adaptation strategies in tropical mountain environments, and that the stakeholder-informed social-ecological systems framework developed here can be readily transferred to other mountain regions coping with climate change.