Ecological Calendars and Climate Adaptation in the Pamirs

山区社区对温室气体浓度上升的贡献最小，正面临着气候变异性增加的最严重影响。适应“新常态”是必要的，这些社区必须为更广泛的可能情况做好准备。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告，迫切需要具备预测气候变化在当地范围内影响的能力。社区必须加强预期能力，使其粮食生产与日益不一致的天气模式保持同步。基于对季节性生物气象事件的本土知识的生态日历可用于预测和应对气候变化。历史上，在帕米尔山脉，农牧社区开发了“人体日历”，以使其多样化的农业活动与高度多变的天气系统保持同步。在20世纪，生态日历被一些政府压制并停止使用。现在，这些以文化和生态为基础的日历为适应气候变化提供了新的希望。帕米尔山脉从阿富汗和塔吉克斯坦的巴达赫山开始，东至中国的孔格尔山，北至吉尔吉斯斯坦的阿莱山。帕米尔山脉具有丰富的生物和文化多样性。这些山区社会正在经历着对其食物系统的巨大气候影响。我们的研究将通过振兴日历来提高帕米里社区的预期能力。利用参与性研究，我们将把土著知识与气候和物候数据的科学分析结合起来，重新校准历史和现有的生态日历。该项目将提供一个概念验证，应用于全球各地的山区社会，最终将举行一次关于生态日历的国际会议，以建立社区对气候变化的适应能力。会议将包括社会和生物物理学家、政策制定者和民间社会领导人，尊重他们与土著山区社区的接触。

Mountain communities, which contribute least to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, are facing the harshest impacts of increasing climate variability. Adapting to a "new normal" is a necessity, and these communities must prepare for a broader range of possible conditions. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, the ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change at the local scale is an urgent need. Communities must strengthen anticipatory capacity to synchronize their food production with increasingly inconsistent weather patterns. Ecological calendars based on indigenous knowledge of seasonal biometeorological events may be used to anticipate and respond to climate variability. Historically in the Pamir Mountains, agro-pastoral communities developed "calendars of the human body" to synchronize their diverse agricultural activities with highly variable weather systems. In the 20th century, ecological calendars were suppressed by some governments and fell out of use. Now, these culturally and ecologically grounded calendars offer new hope as a way to adapt to climate change. The Pamir Mountains extend from Badakhshan Afghanistan and Tajikistan, east to China's Kongur Shan, and north into the Trans Alai of Kyrgyzstan. The Pamir Mountains are rich in biological and cultural diversity. These mountain societies are experiencing dramatic climate impacts on their food systems. Our research will contribute to the anticipatory capacity of Pamiri communities by revitalizing calendars. Using participatory research, we will recalibrate historical and existing ecological calendars by integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific analyses of climate and phenological data. The project will provide a proof-of-concept to be applied in mountain societies across the globe, culminating in an international conference on ecological calendars for building community resilience to climate change. The conference will include social and biophysical scientists, policy makers, and civil society leaders in respectful engagement with indigenous mountain communities.