Modelling gap dynamics, succession, and disturbance regimes of mangrove forests

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Mangrove forests provide important services. Their functioning, however, has not been fully understood. Disturbances, that create gaps and larger open patches, drive their dynamics but it is unclear how this gap dynamics interacts with other biotic and abiotic drivers including resource gradients, resource use efficiency, neighbourhood competition, seed availability, and different causes of tree mortality. In order to analyse these processes, we will use two types of spatially explicit simulation models: i) the well-established mangrove model KiWi at scales of 1-10 ha, and ii) a grid-based model to be developed for larger scales (10-1000 ha). KiWi has been parameterized for new world mangrove forests, which are dominated by three species, and it will be parameterized for old world mangrove forests, which include ten or more tree species. Latitudinal gradients in growth conditions will be considered as well as long term changes in winter temperature, inundation regime, and frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes. The simulation results will be compared with empirical patterns in time, space, and forest organization observed at different scales and hierarchical levels. This study will significantly contribute to the scientific basis for coastal stabilization and restoration of green belts preserving the services provided by mangrove ecosystems.