The Role of Risk, Ambiguity, and Time Preferences in Farmers Decision Making to Participate in Agroforestry Payments for Environmental Services (PES) Programs in Developing Countries

农业生产是温室气体排放的重要来源。减缓人为气候变化的一个重要战略是通过增加地貌景观的碳储存，从大气中吸收二氧化碳。农林业作为一种气候智能型土地使用系统得到推广，它有意将农业用地上的树木种植结合起来，并提供了从大气中清除二氧化碳的可能性。鼓励发展中国家采用农林业做法的一个办法是通过生物碳项目，农民通过国际碳市场获得付款，以换取在其土地上固碳。这些项目是称为环境服务付费的一组市场机制的一部分。参与生态系统服务补偿方案是自愿的，因此有效的方案设计需要考虑到农民的偏好。然而，很少有人知道农民厌恶不确定性，包括风险和模糊性，可能会影响参与生态系统服务补偿方案。农民的时间偏好也可能是参与生态系统服务补偿方案的一个重要制约因素，因为农林业是一个长期过程，因此收益可能需要很长时间才能积累。生态系统服务补偿方案通常将特定的支付金额和方法、特定的土地使用要求以及特定的合同期限和条件结合起来，以创建一个功能方案。然而，在发展中国家进行的关于农民对生态系统服务补偿方案关键设计属性的偏好的研究很少。因此，对农民如何参与这些方案以促进对环境有益的土地管理工作没有全面的了解。目的是（1）研究风险，模糊性和时间偏好的作用，在农民的决策参与农林生态系统服务补偿方案使用现场实验和（2）量化农民的偏好的关键设计属性的农林生态系统服务补偿方案使用选择实验。为确保收集和理解男女双方的意见，将收集按性别分列的数据。这项研究将在肯尼亚进行，并将与肯尼亚农业碳项目联系起来。这项研究将大大有助于研究方向和关于在小农户背景下适当设计生态系统服务付费制度的国际政策辩论。

Agricultural production contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. An important strategy for slowing anthropogenic climate change is the sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by increasing carbon stocks of landscapes. Agroforestry, which is promoted as a climate-smart land use system, deliberately integrates tree-growing on agricultural land and offers the possibility to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. One option to incentivize the adoption of agroforestry practices in developing countries is through biocarbon projects, in which farmers receive payments through international carbon markets in exchange for carbon sequestered on their land. These projects are part of a group of market-based mechanisms known as Payments for Environmental Services (PES). Participation in PES programs is voluntary, so that an effective program design needs to take into account farmers preferences. However, little is known on how farmers aversion to uncertainty, including both risk and ambiguity, might affect participation in PES programs. Farmers time preferences may also be a significant constraint in PES program participation since agroforestry is a long-term process and benefits can thus take a long time to accrue. A PES program usually combines a particular payment amount and method, specific land use requirements, and a particular contract length and conditionality to create a functional program. However, very few studies have been conducted in a developing country concerning farmers preferences for key design attributes of PES programs. Consequently no comprehensive understanding exists of how farmers may engage with such programs to contribute to environmentally beneficial land management efforts. The objectives are (1) to examine the role of risk, ambiguity, and time preferences in farmers decision making to participate in agroforestry PES programs using field experiments and (2) to quantify farmers preferences for key design attributes of agroforestry PES programs using a choice experiment. To ensure that the views of both men and women are captured and understood, gender-disaggregated data will be collected. The study will be conducted in Kenya and will be linked to the Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project. The study will contribute substantially to the research direction and the international policy debate about the appropriate design of PES schemes in a smallholder context.