The Role of Risk, Ambiguity, and Time Preferences in Farmers Decision Making to Participate in Agroforestry Payments for Environmental Services (PES) Programs in Developing Countries

农业生产对温室气体排放的贡献很大。减缓人为气候变化的一个重要战略是通过增加景观的碳储量来隔绝大气中的二氧化碳。农林业作为一种气候智能型土地利用系统被推广，它有意将农业用地上的树木种植结合起来，并提供了从大气中去除二氧化碳的可能性。在发展中国家，鼓励采用农林业做法的一个选择是通过生物碳项目，在这个项目中，农民通过国际碳市场获得付款，以换取他们土地上封存的碳。这些项目是一组以市场为基础的机制的一部分，称为环境服务支付（PES）。PES项目的参与是自愿的，因此有效的项目设计需要考虑到农民的偏好。然而，关于农民对不确定性（包括风险和模糊性）的厌恶如何影响PES项目的参与，我们知之甚少。农民的时间偏好也可能成为PES项目参与的重大制约因素，因为农林业是一个长期过程，因此可能需要很长时间才能产生效益。PES项目通常结合了特定的付款金额和方式、特定的土地使用要求、特定的合同期限和条件，以创建一个功能性项目。然而，在发展中国家进行的关于农民对PES项目关键设计属性的偏好的研究很少。因此，对于农民如何参与此类项目以促进有利于环境的土地管理工作，目前还没有全面的了解。本研究的目的是：(1)通过实地实验考察风险、模糊性和时间偏好在农民参与农林业PES项目决策中的作用；(2)通过选择实验量化农民对农林业PES项目关键设计属性的偏好。为确保了解和了解男子和妇女的意见，将收集按性别分列的数据。这项研究将在肯尼亚进行，并将与肯尼亚农业碳项目联系起来。这项研究将对研究方向和国际政策辩论作出重大贡献，这些辩论是关于在小农背景下适当设计PES方案的。

Agricultural production contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. An important strategy for slowing anthropogenic climate change is the sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by increasing carbon stocks of landscapes. Agroforestry, which is promoted as a climate-smart land use system, deliberately integrates tree-growing on agricultural land and offers the possibility to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. One option to incentivize the adoption of agroforestry practices in developing countries is through biocarbon projects, in which farmers receive payments through international carbon markets in exchange for carbon sequestered on their land. These projects are part of a group of market-based mechanisms known as Payments for Environmental Services (PES). Participation in PES programs is voluntary, so that an effective program design needs to take into account farmers preferences. However, little is known on how farmers aversion to uncertainty, including both risk and ambiguity, might affect participation in PES programs. Farmers time preferences may also be a significant constraint in PES program participation since agroforestry is a long-term process and benefits can thus take a long time to accrue. A PES program usually combines a particular payment amount and method, specific land use requirements, and a particular contract length and conditionality to create a functional program. However, very few studies have been conducted in a developing country concerning farmers preferences for key design attributes of PES programs. Consequently no comprehensive understanding exists of how farmers may engage with such programs to contribute to environmentally beneficial land management efforts. The objectives are (1) to examine the role of risk, ambiguity, and time preferences in farmers decision making to participate in agroforestry PES programs using field experiments and (2) to quantify farmers preferences for key design attributes of agroforestry PES programs using a choice experiment. To ensure that the views of both men and women are captured and understood, gender-disaggregated data will be collected. The study will be conducted in Kenya and will be linked to the Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project. The study will contribute substantially to the research direction and the international policy debate about the appropriate design of PES schemes in a smallholder context.