An Empirical Study on the Effects of Consumption Tax on Household Consumption Behaviors and on Disparity among Households

消费税对家庭消费行为影响及家庭间差异的实证研究

• 批准号: 19K01715
• 负责人: 堀 雅博
• 金额: $ 2.83万
• 依托单位: Hitotsubashi University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2019-04-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-19K01715/
• 关键词: 消費税; 財政再建; 恒常所得仮説; 家計消費; 付加価値税; 逆進課税; 世帯間格差; ライフサイクル仮説; EBPM

本研究は、日本の財政の基幹財源として期待される消費税について、家計のミクロデータ等を活用した分析を行い、確かな根拠に基づいて消費税施策を実施するための材料を提供することを目的としている。具体的には、①複数の統計調査の個票を組み合わせ、単一統計ベースの先行研究の限界を乗り越えた実証的な分析・検証を行うこと、②学術的理論仮説の検証に止まらず、我が国の実際の政策運営の観点から特に重要な政策課題に焦点を当てた問題設定で分析を行うこと。更には、③経済学者と国民一般の間に存在する（消費税の必要性に係る）大きな認識の違いを埋め、我が国の喫緊の課題である財政再建を進める上での障害の除去につなげること等を目指した。研究期間を通じ、複数統計の個票を補完的に組み合わせたデータベースを構築し、①わが国の所得格差の実態把握とその変遷の要因分析（特に税制が所得再分配に与える影響の分析）、②いわゆる「消費税の逆進性」を消費の恒常所得仮説の観点から再検証した分析、③国民一般とエコノミスト（経済学者）の間の消費税の必要性に関する認識の乖離の確認と、乖離の要因に関する分析、④日本財政の状況に対する理解が消費税の必要性に関する認識に影響を与えるか否かのランダム化比較実験による検証、⑤アベノミクス期の消費性向の低下に消費税が与えた影響の分析、⑥国際パネルデータを用いた消費税率引き上げがマクロ消費に与える影響の検証等に取り組んでいる。研究期間の大半の時間の活動の制約となったコロナ禍の影響もあり、進捗が遅れ、学術誌への掲載等の公表段階には到達できていないが、上記①、②、③、⑤については既にワーキングペーパーの執筆を終えており、③、⑤については近日中の学会報告も予定されている。幸い、2023年度一杯の研究期間延長も認めて頂けたことから、残りの論文の完成を急ぎ、できるだけ多く成果公表を行うよう努力したい。

In this study, the Japanese government information source is looking forward to the application of consumer tax analysis, such as consumer tax analysis, household statistics, and so on. Specific statistics, 1-complex statistics, individual ticket groups, statistics, statistics and statistics. In general, many scholars and scholars do not know that there is a need for people to learn about the need for consumer tax. in general, there are many problems, such as the need for consumption tax, the need for tax reduction, the burial of knowledge, the burial of knowledge, the reconstruction of politics, the improvement of government, the elimination of obstacles, and so on. During the period of the study, the statistics of complex statistics have been completed. After the completion of the study, there is a balance of income between the two countries. The analysis of the factors (redistribution of income under the special tax system and negative impact analysis), the negative effect of consumer tax on the negative performance of consumer tax, and the constant income of consumer tax have been analyzed and analyzed. (3) the national general government does not know whether it is necessary to pay a tax. (3) the national general government does not know that it is necessary to pay a tax. (3) in general, it is necessary for people to understand the necessity of tax payment. (3) the national general government does not know whether it is necessary to pay a tax. (3) the national general government does not know whether it is necessary to pay a tax. 5. In the first half of the year, the consumer tax rate will be reduced in the first half of the year, and the consumer tax rate will be used in 6 international countries. During the study period, more than half of the time during the study period, most of the time during the study period, more than half of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period, during the study period, most of the time during the study period. Fortunately, during the 2023 one-cup research period, we completed the emergency and multi-year results in the public table of multi-year results.