Preferences for Crop Insurance Programs among Smallholder Cocoa Farmers in Ghana

本研究旨在通过分析农民对各种经济作物保险方案，特别是传统保险方案的偏好，为作物保险方案的文献做出贡献。鉴于天气不确定性和不完善市场的重要性，我们开发了一个理论框架来展示生产风险和流动性约束如何影响农民的作物保险选择。由于加纳没有关于农作物保险购买决策的数据，我们打算进行一项选择实验调查，以了解该国阿散蒂和西部地区农民对各种作物保险计划的偏好。然后将分两个阶段对作物保险计划的偏好进行调查。研究的第一阶段将考虑参加或不参加的决定，使用离散选择模型，然后在替代作物保险计划中选择，假设农民已经表达了参加保险的意愿，使用多项逻辑模型。分析的第二阶段将使用选择实验数据来检查农民对作物保险属性的偏好和支付意愿（WTP）。我们将采用Hess和Stathopoulos（2013）提出的混合潜变量模型框架，其中调查参与指标的数据与受访者对所述选择问题的回答联合建模。这种方法清楚地解释了被调查者之间潜在的不同参与水平所导致的规模异质性，同时也克服了内生性偏差和测量误差的问题。最后，我们将使用Mariel等人（2015）开发的混合潜在类别方法，研究农民之间的偏好异质性和异质性来源。

The study aims at contributing to the literature on crop insurance programs by analyzing farmers preferences for various cash crop insurance programs, particularly the traditional insurance programs. Given the significance of weather uncertainty and imperfect markets, we develop a theoretical framework to show how production risks and liquidity constraints affect farmers crop insurance choices. To the extent that data on crop insurance purchase decsions are not available in Ghana, we intend to conduct a choice experiment survey to elicit farmers preferences for various crop insurance programs in the Ashanti and Western regions in the country. Preferences for crop insurance programs will then be investigated in a two-stage process. The first-stage of the study will consider the decision to participate or not to participate, using a discrete choice model and then the choice among alternate crop insurance programs, given that the farmer has expressed the willingness to participate in it, using a multinomial logit model. The second-stage of the analysis will use the choice experiment data to examine farmers preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for crop insurance attributes. We will employ the hybrid latent variable model framework proposed by Hess and Stathopoulos (2013), in which data on indicators of survey engagement are jointly modeled with respondents answers to the stated choice questions. This approach distinctly accounts for scale heterogeneity caused by potentially different levels of engagement among the respondents, while also overcoming the problems of endogeneity bias and measurement errors. Finally, we will examine preference heterogeneity and the sources of heterogeneity among the farmers, using the hybrid latent class approach developed by Mariel et al. (2015).