Microsimulations on family and care

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One of the most important social developments and challenges can be described with regard to the demographic change and its far-reaching consequences. In this context, an already clearly visible problem area seems to be nursing care for elderly: an ever-growing number of elderly people, who are particularly affected by care needs, are facing an ever smaller number of younger people, who could meet these needs both professionally – in form of a qualified nursing profession – as well as within the family. The latter phenomenon is of central importance, since a large part of care-dependent people today are supported and cared for at home. To cover the future care needs of society in a goal-oriented manner, it is necessary to relate the dynamics of demographic changes, the changes in familial life plans as well as their consequences for the expected care potential and to predict it empirically robust. Against the background of regional specifics, it is further necessary to generate a small-scale predictive power, which will be able to cope with the real planning units and all their peculiarities. The purpose of the project is to achieve this from a family sociological perspective within the framework of small area estimation and microsimulation and as a consequence be able to generate better planning reliability with regard to future necessities but also potentials for care.