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Natural disasters and economic development: Microeconometric evidence from Nepal's 2015 earthquake

自然灾害与经济发展：2015 年尼泊尔地震的微观计量经济学证据

基本信息

批准号：
400895665
负责人：
Professor Dr. Matthias Schündeln
金额：
--
依托单位：
Professur für Entwicklungsökonomie
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2017-12-31 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/400895665?language=en
关键词：
Natural disasters economic development Microeconometric

项目摘要

Increasing global temperatures are predicted to lead to a growing risk of natural disasters, such as droughts and storms. These and other natural disasters, such as earthquakes, can have profound economic impacts, well beyond the immediate destruction they cause. The main goal of the project is therefore to study effects of natural disasters on economic development, and channels through which these effects are mediated. We do so using the large earthquake that hit Nepal in 2015 as a natural experiment. Because of the availability of unique data Nepal provides a particularly useful case study. Methodologically, we will exploit the exogenous nature of the earthquake and employ econometric techniques from the natural experiments literature to identify causal effects of the earthquake.Understanding the medium- to long-run effects of natural disasters is particularly important for less developed regions of the world for a number of reasons: In poor countries, fewer resources are available to prepare for disasters and to deal with their effects. Many households are active in the often particularly strongly affected agricultural sector or otherwise dependent on natural resources. Living in or close to poverty also implies that even small negative shocks may have long-lasting effects, e.g. through malnutrition or changes in educational decisions. Further, less developed countries often have political economy related problems, such as weak institutions or ethnic favoritism, which may hamper an effective response to disasters. We propose to study the effect of the earthquake in three important domains of economic development: first, it’s effect on schooling outcomes; second, the effect on the subsequent use of the natural resources. Third, we also investigate political economy issues and study determinants of how aid is distributed. To study educational outcomes and associated channels, we have access to full data on nation-wide exam results for years before and after the earthquake, more than 2 million observations overall. To study deforestation, we use survey data on the use of wood as well as data on deforestation derived from satellite pictures. To study the political economy behind the distribution of aid, we have detailed data on objective measures of housing destruction for more than 1 million households as well as the amount of aid received by these households.The immediate goal of the project is to contribute to a better understanding of how households and the environment are affected by disasters, and to gain an understanding of political economy issues around disaster aid. This in turn has practical implications for applied questions around development and disaster aid. More generally, the proposed work can contribute towards a better understanding of constraints and challenges for managing limited resources (such as forests, resources allocated to human capital formation, and funds allotted to reconstruction) in the development process.

据预测，全球气温上升将导致干旱和风暴等自然灾害的风险增加。这些灾害和地震等其他自然灾害可能产生深远的经济影响，远远超出它们造成的直接破坏。因此，该项目的主要目标是研究自然灾害对经济发展的影响以及减轻这些影响的渠道。我们使用2015年袭击尼泊尔的大地震作为自然实验。由于有独特的数据，尼泊尔提供了特别有用的案例研究。在方法上，我们将利用地震的外生性质，并采用计量经济学技术，从自然实验文献，以确定地震的因果效应。了解自然灾害的中长期影响是特别重要的欠发达地区的世界有几个原因：在贫穷国家，较少的资源可用于备灾和处理其影响。许多家庭从事往往受影响特别严重的农业部门，或以其他方式依赖自然资源。生活在贫困中或接近贫困也意味着，即使是很小的负面冲击也可能产生长期影响，例如通过营养不良或教育决定的改变。此外，较不发达国家往往存在与政治经济有关的问题，如机构薄弱或族裔偏袒，这可能妨碍有效应对灾害。我们建议在经济发展的三个重要领域研究地震的影响：第一，它对教育成果的影响;第二，对自然资源的后续使用的影响。第三，我们还调查政治经济问题，并研究如何分配援助的决定因素。为了研究教育成果和相关渠道，我们获得了地震前后几年全国考试成绩的完整数据，总共超过200万次观察。为了研究森林砍伐，我们使用了关于木材使用的调查数据以及来自卫星图片的森林砍伐数据。为了研究援助分配背后的政治经济学，我们掌握了100多万户家庭的房屋被毁的客观指标以及这些家庭获得的援助金额的详细数据。该项目的近期目标是帮助更好地了解家庭和环境如何受到灾害的影响，并了解与灾害援助有关的政治经济学问题。这反过来又对围绕发展和救灾援助的应用问题产生了实际影响。更广泛地说，拟议的工作有助于更好地了解发展进程中管理有限资源（如森林、分配给人力资本形成的资源和分配给重建的资金）的制约因素和挑战。