The Interplay between Individuals' Expectations, Active Labour Market Policies, Job Search Behaviour and Labour Market Outcomes

个人期望、积极的劳动力市场政策、求职行为和劳动力​​市场结果之间的相互作用

• 批准号: 405629508
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Marco Caliendo
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/405629508?language=en
• 关键词: Interplay; between; Individuals; Expectations; Active

In the last decades, a comprehensive part of the economic literature has analysed the effects of active labour market policies (ALMPs) on participants subsequent labour market outcomes. Recent meta-analyses show that traditional programs, e.g. training or workfare programs, have only limited success bringing participants back to regular employment, which raises questions about the underlying effect mechanisms. So far, only a few studies have taken into account that job seekers already adjust their search behaviour when anticipating a future treatment. Depending on the expected effect of a treatment on the individual utility, job seeker who anticipate a treatment are either encouraged to leave unemployment early to prevent the treatment or wait out until the program start. However, the actual mechanisms with respect to the formation of these expectations about future treatments, the presence of competing labour market programs and the long-term consequences of such a behavioural adjustment have not yet sufficiently investigated.The following research projects aims to close this gap and provide a more profound understanding of the job search process considering the interplay with job seekers expectations and consequences for realised labour market outcomes. The project combines the two strands of the literature, the ex-post and ex-ante evaluation of ALMP programs, incorporates subjective beliefs about future ALMP participation in a job search framework and tests the derived hypothesis by exploiting a unique combination of survey and administrative data for a sample of fresh entries into unemployment in Germany. The data allow us to investigate the anticipation effects of competing ALMP programmes with different costs of participating and different expected treatment effects. In a second step, we analyse the process of the individual formation of expectations and the interplay with labour market outcomes in general. Therefore, we will also provide evidence with respect to the precision and quality of the underlying expectation data, which is expected to provide evidence with respect to the reliability of studies that infer expectations or beliefs in general based on revealed preference analysis relying on observed outcomes. Finally, we relate job seekers’ expectations measured at the beginning of the unemployment spell to realized treatments and investigate consequences for the programme effectiveness. The findings are expected to help policy makers to increase the efficiency when allocating ALMP programmes and stimulate early exits from unemployment by exploiting anticipation effects. This is particular important since these programmes represent one of the major governmental instruments in order to re-integrate unemployed job seekers into the labour market.

在过去的几十年里，经济学文献的一个综合部分分析了积极的劳动力市场政策对参与者的影响，并分析了劳动力市场的后续结果。最近的荟萃分析表明，传统的计划，如培训或工作福利计划，在让参与者重返正常就业方面的成功有限，这引发了对潜在影响机制的质疑。到目前为止，只有少数几项研究考虑到，求职者在预期未来的待遇时已经调整了他们的寻找行为。根据治疗对个人公用事业的预期效果，预计会得到治疗的求职者要么被鼓励提前离开失业岗位，以防止治疗，要么等到计划开始。然而，关于这些对未来治疗的预期的形成的实际机制、劳动力市场竞争计划的存在以及这种行为调整的长期后果还没有得到充分的调查。以下研究项目旨在缩小这一差距，并考虑到与求职者对实现劳动力市场结果的期望和结果的相互作用，对求职过程有更深刻的理解。该项目结合了两个方面的文献，即对ALMP项目的事后评估和事前评估，将关于未来ALMP参与的主观信念纳入求职框架，并通过利用调查和管理数据的独特组合来检验得出的假设，以获取德国新的失业数据样本。这些数据使我们能够调查不同参与成本和不同预期治疗效果的相互竞争的ALMP方案的预期效果。在第二步中，我们分析了个人预期的形成过程以及与总体劳动力市场结果的相互作用。因此，我们还将提供关于潜在预期数据的精确度和质量的证据，这些数据预计将提供证据，证明基于基于观察结果的揭示偏好分析推断预期或信念的研究的可靠性。最后，我们将失业初期衡量的求职者的期望与已实现的治疗相联系，并调查对计划有效性的影响。预计这些发现将有助于政策制定者提高分配ALMP计划的效率，并通过利用预期效应来刺激早日摆脱失业。这一点特别重要，因为这些方案是使失业求职者重新融入劳动力市场的主要政府手段之一。