Developing improved social-ecological scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services in north temperate freshwater ecosystems over the next half century

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In the context of global change an increase in extreme events such as storms or heatwaves is expected- on top of the general warming trends. We will develop scenarios to understand how the overlap of short-term (heat waves, Storms) and long-term (climate warming) disturbances act in concert affecting biodiversity of lake ecosystems in the north temperate zone in time and the consequences for ecosystem functioning, resilience and ecosystem services. We predict that the timing, magnitude and frequency of short-term extremes play an important role because e.g. storms of similar magnitude can have different effects depending on the season or the morphometry of a lake. The scenarios build on empirical decadal data from lakes across the world at temporal resolution of minutes (automatic in situ measurements from GLEON lakes; water temperature, oxygen, chl.a, turbidity) and weekly to monthly resolution ( > 34 north temperate lakes with data on plankton communities, abiotic drivers such temperature, nutrients, light). Based on remote sensing data (Sentinel satellite images; water temperature, chlorophyll a) we will test as to how the frequency of unstable lakes with respect to water clarity increase with global warming for lakes globally. The project will develop an innovative methodological framework that combines a collective (cross-regional) approach to forecasting scenario planning for freshwater ecosystems and a backcasting scenario planning that considers these drivers in the design of pathways towards a sustainability vision of freshwater ecosystems. The methodology will be applied in case studies in Germany, Sweden and Canada. Expected results include design principles for participatory scenario processes to support transformational learning towards sustainable use of freshwater ecosystem services and characteristics of human-freshwater interactions that determine the resilience of SES in situations of high use conflicts and uncertainties