Developing improved social-ecological scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services in north temperate freshwater ecosystems over the next half century

为未来半个世纪北温带淡水生态系统的生物多样性和生态系统服务制定改进的社会生态情景

• 批准号: 411108520
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Rita Adrian, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/411108520?language=en
• 关键词: Developing; improved; social; ecological; scenarios

In the context of global change an increase in extreme events such as storms or heatwaves is expected- on top of the general warming trends. We will develop scenarios to understand how the overlap of short-term (heat waves, Storms) and long-term (climate warming) disturbances act in concert affecting biodiversity of lake ecosystems in the north temperate zone in time and the consequences for ecosystem functioning, resilience and ecosystem services. We predict that the timing, magnitude and frequency of short-term extremes play an important role because e.g. storms of similar magnitude can have different effects depending on the season or the morphometry of a lake. The scenarios build on empirical decadal data from lakes across the world at temporal resolution of minutes (automatic in situ measurements from GLEON lakes; water temperature, oxygen, chl.a, turbidity) and weekly to monthly resolution ( > 34 north temperate lakes with data on plankton communities, abiotic drivers such temperature, nutrients, light). Based on remote sensing data (Sentinel satellite images; water temperature, chlorophyll a) we will test as to how the frequency of unstable lakes with respect to water clarity increase with global warming for lakes globally. The project will develop an innovative methodological framework that combines a collective (cross-regional) approach to forecasting scenario planning for freshwater ecosystems and a backcasting scenario planning that considers these drivers in the design of pathways towards a sustainability vision of freshwater ecosystems. The methodology will be applied in case studies in Germany, Sweden and Canada. Expected results include design principles for participatory scenario processes to support transformational learning towards sustainable use of freshwater ecosystem services and characteristics of human-freshwater interactions that determine the resilience of SES in situations of high use conflicts and uncertainties

在全球变化的背景下，除了普遍的变暖趋势之外，预计风暴或热浪等极端事件会增加。我们将制定情景，以了解短期（热浪，风暴）和长期（气候变暖）干扰的重叠如何及时影响北温带湖泊生态系统的生物多样性，以及对生态系统功能，恢复力和生态系统服务的后果。我们预测，短期极端事件的发生时间、强度和频率起着重要作用，因为例如，类似强度的风暴可能会根据季节或湖泊的形态产生不同的影响。这些情景基于世界各地湖泊的经验性十年数据，时间分辨率为分钟（GLEON湖泊的自动原位测量;水温、氧气、叶绿素a、浊度）和每周至每月分辨率（> 34个北温带湖泊的浮游生物群落数据，非生物驱动因素，如温度、营养物质、光照）。基于遥感数据（哨兵卫星图像;水温，叶绿素a），我们将测试不稳定湖泊的频率如何随着全球湖泊的全球变暖而增加。该项目将制定一个创新的方法框架，将淡水生态系统预测设想方案规划的集体（跨区域）办法与在设计实现淡水生态系统可持续性愿景的途径时考虑到这些驱动因素的回溯设想方案规划结合起来。该方法将用于德国、瑞典和加拿大的案例研究。预期成果包括参与性设想方案进程的设计原则，以支持向可持续利用淡水生态系统服务转变的学习，以及确定社会经济地位在高利用率、冲突和不确定性情况下的复原力的人与淡水相互作用的特点