Climate induced changes in phenology of lake plankton communities: Implications for the match / mismatch of species interactions

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Long term studies suggest that seasonal succession in aquatic ecosystems is currently advancing in temperate latitudes. Those changes are likely to generate complex, and possibly time lagged responses leading to a decoupling (mismatch) of so far tightly coupled (matched) processes. Previous studies have basically focussed on individual species' responses to warming, while neglecting inter-specific interactions. Within AQUASHIFT we aim to identify past phase shifts and time-lagged responses in phyto- and zooplankton communities, and subsequent changes in species interaction induced by observed and projected climate warming. Our methodological approach is focussed on statistical data exploration, time series analysis, and modelling, based upon long-term records (24 years) of plankton, physical and chemical data from shallow, polymictic, eutrophic Müggelsee (Berlin). We anticipate to separate direct temperature driven responses from indirect responses through changes in thermal regime and species interaction. A stochastic and/or deterministic model will be created to describe the linkage between winter and spring meteorological conditions and vernal phytoplankton development in Müggelsee. Model development builds on previous statistical analysis and will be complemented by stochastic terms resulting from the parallel time series analysis. The model will be coupled to an existing lake physics model. This offline-coupled model system will be used to project changes in the timing and intensity of the phytoplankton spring blooms under a range of climate change scenarios.