Historical and Tehoretical Analysis of the Stability of the Japanese Financial System

自1991年以来，日本经济一直处于严重低迷状态。这场萧条的特点是土地和股票等资产价格大幅下跌，以及几家机构经历的财务困境。这种不稳定的金融体系进一步抑制了经济。过去，美国等国和日本曾多次发生银行经营失败、金融体系不稳定的情况。在日本，自明治维新以来，银行体系的建立经历了几次银行倒闭和挤兑，1927年发生了最严重的银行恐慌。本研究项目旨在从理论和经验上分析金融和银行体系的稳定性，并考察它们对资源配置和宏观经济走势的影响。我从我的研究中得出了几个有趣的结果，其中一些如下：1.我通过对1927年日本银行倒闭的实证分析得出结论，主要原因不是人们对银行体系普遍失去信心，而是银行管理不善，如风险分散失败。2.结论是，在信息不完全的金融市场，存在多重市场均衡，其中一些均衡是无效的。3.我们表明，银行对通货紧缩的反应在商业周期中起着重要的作用。

Japanese economy had been in severe depression since 1991. This depression is characterized by sharp and large declines in asset prices such as land and stocks, and also by financial distress several institutions experienced. This unstable financial system depressed the economy further. The failures in bank management and the instability of financial system had occurred many times in the United States and other foreign countries as well as Japan in the past. In Japan we have experienced bank failures and runs several times in the establishment of the banking system since Meiji Restoration and the worst banking panic occurred in 1927.This research project is to analyze theoretically and empirically the stability of financial and banking systems and to examine their effects on the allocation of resources and macroeconomic movements. I derived several interesting results from my research, some of which are as follows :1.I concluded from my empirical analysis of bank closing in 1927 in Japan that the main cause was not the general loss of confidence in the banking system but their mismanagement such as failures in risk diversification.2.It is concluded that in financial markets with imperfect information, there are multiple market equilibria and some of them are not efficient.3.We showed that the bank response to deflation plays an important factor in business cycles.