A RESEARCH OF POPULATION PROJECTION IN THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANNING

社会经济规划中的人口预测研究

• 批准号: 06630021
• 负责人: NISHIMURA Yoshihiro
• 金额: $ 0.64万
• 依托单位: OITA UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1994 至 1995
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06630021/
• 关键词: comprehensive development planning; population projection; 社会経済計画; 経済開発計画; 人口変数の統合化

In the 1994 fiscal year, I translated the United Nations'manual for the comprehensive development planning ^<1)> into Japanese. Then, in the 1995 fiscal year, I ascertained the following as a result of the examination of the manual.The manual is oriented toward generalization of the methodology based on the present conditions in the developing countries. It includes materials providing the conceptual basis for integrating demographic variables in the planning. It is presented as a conceptual framework for the planning. The framework draws ideas from the critical re-examinations of ecnomic growth-oriented planning. In addition, it consists of the methodological chapters describing various projection techniques. The economic, social and demographic projections are not made by the comprehensive planning models but partial techniques.The concerned argument on the conceptual framework is abstract, because the United Nations doesn't present the planning framework in the manual that seems to … More conform with the general model of the comprehensive development planning. If the United Nations presented it, the assertion of the United Nations, that is to say, the planning assuming that a primary objective of social and economic development is the attainment of higher standards of living, could become more clear.The generalization of population projection technique is close to the complete stage, but it doesn't necessarily correspond to the actual projection possibility. And the utility of the United Nations' manual should be of great, if the United Nations presented illustrative examples from the viewpoint of the preliminary projection and the plan projection, from the retrospective estimations of demographic factors to their future assumptions. Furthermore, I referred the points which should be taken into consideration in the social and economic planning of our country.1) United Nations, Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning, Volume I : Methods for Comprehensive planning, Module 1 (1989), Module 2 (1990), Module 3 (1993). Less

在1994财政年度，我将《联合国全面发展规划手册》翻译成日文。然后，在1995财政年度，通过对手册的审查，我确定了以下内容。该手册旨在根据发展中国家的现状推广方法。它包括为在规划中纳入人口变量提供概念基础的材料。它是作为规划的概念框架提出的。该框架借鉴了对经济增长导向型计划的批判性重新审视。此外，它还包括描述各种投影技术的方法论章节。经济、社会和人口预测不是由全面的规划模型做出的，而是部分技术做出的。有关概念框架的争论是抽象的，因为联合国在手册中没有提出在…看来的规划框架更加符合综合发展规划的总体模式。如果联合国提出，联合国的主张，即假设社会和经济发展的首要目标是实现更高的生活水平的规划可能会变得更加清晰。人口预测技术的推广接近完成阶段，但它不一定与实际预测的可能性相对应。如果联合国从初步预测和计划预测的角度，从对人口因素的回顾估计到其未来的假设，提供说明性的例子，那么联合国手册的用处应该很大。1)联合国，《将人口变量纳入发展规划的预测方法》，第一卷：《综合规划的方法》，单元1()、单元2(1990年)、单元3(1993年)。较少

项目成果

西村善博: "総合開発計画における将来人口推計-国連の方法論に関する研究(2)-" 大分大学経済学会『大分大学経済論集』. 49巻1号(掲載予定). (1997)

西村义弘：《综合发展计划中的未来人口估算——联合国方法论研究（2）》大分大学经济学会《大分大学经济评论》第49卷第1期（待出版）。

Yoshihiro Nishimura: ""On an examination of the population projection Method in the Comprehensive Planning by the United Nations"." OITA-DAIGAKU-KEIZAI-GAKKAI,OITA UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC REVIEW. Vol.49 No.1 (coming soon). (1997)

西村义博：“《联合国综合规划中人口推算方法的考察》”。

Yoshihiro Nishimura: ""On an Examination of the Conceptual Framework for the Comprehensive Development Planning by the United Nations"." OITA-DAIGAKU-KEIZAI-GAKKAI,OITA UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC REVIEW. Vol.48 No.5・6 (coming soon). (1997)

西村义宏：“联合国综合发展规划概念框架的审查”。大分大学经济评论第48卷第5・6期（即将出版）。 (1997)

西村善博: "総合開発計画における人口変数統合化の基礎理論-国連の方法論に関する研究(1)-" 大分大学経済学会『大分大学経済論集』. 48巻56号((掲載予定)). (1997)

西村义弘：《综合发展计划中人口变量整合的基本理论——联合国方法论研究（1）》大分大学经济学会《大分大学经济评论》第48卷第56期（（待出版））。 (1997)