The Empirical Study on Land Price Changes in Urban and non-Urban Land-Use

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We have discussed the problems caused by the rapid changes of land price from 1950s. The several policies that control the changes were adopted, however they did not work well because there is something yet to investigate the factors of the changes. Therefore, the purpose of this study is twofold, i.e.to clarify factors of land price changes at urban and non-urban land-use in Tokyo Mtropolitan Areas, and to establish the method with which we can estimete the changes.Firstly, we analyzed the relation between the land price changes and their factors which consisted of follows ; 1) an expectation of land rent for the future, 2) an expectation of land price for the future, 3) returns rate of substitute property. As a result, we clarified that the presennt changes were determined by those during last one and half yesrs.Secondly, we identified the mechanism of land price changes by the data that possessed same attribute each year. And we found that land price chnages are primarily determined by spatial repercussions during 1984 and 1992 with network autocorelation model.Thirdly, we aimed to establish the methd to forecast land price changes by the difussion index. The analysis clarified the applicability of this method to the case of commercial districts in the central part of Tokyo. Furthermore, this study demonstrated the applicabiliy of the difussion index, and prove the advantage of this method.After all, we clarified the machanism of the determinaton od land price changes and indicated the method of forecasting the changes.