Predicting the future: testing a unitary account of judgment under uncertainty.

预测未来：在不确定性下检验单一判断。

• 批准号: DP0558181
• 负责人: Prof Benjamin Newell
• 金额: $ 11.09万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2005-01-01 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0558181
• 关键词: Predicting; future; testing; unitary; account

The research uses innovative techniques to examine how people use multiple sources of information to make judgments in situations when the outcomes are uncertain. This basic ability is a key feature of many aspects of our lives, thus understanding the fundamental mechanisms involved has considerable potential to improve judgment and decision-making skills across a range of environments. These include, economic forecasting, predicting consumer behaviour, understanding and rectifying gambling behaviour, and improving educational training. In addition, the research will be published in international journals enhancing the reputation of Australian science, and conduct of the project will provide valuable research training for students.

该研究使用创新技术来研究人们如何使用多种信息来源在结果不确定的情况下做出判断。这种基本能力是我们生活的许多方面的关键特征，因此了解所涉及的基本机制具有相当大的潜力，可以提高在各种环境中的判断和决策技能。这些措施包括经济预测、预测消费者行为、了解和纠正赌博行为以及改善教育培训。此外，该研究将发表在国际期刊上，提高澳大利亚科学的声誉，该项目的实施将为学生提供宝贵的研究培训。