Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice

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A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?