Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice

风险期货：走向风险跨期选择的计算过程模型

• 批准号: DP140101145
• 负责人: Prof Benjamin Newell
• 金额: $ 20.29万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2014-04-10 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP140101145
• 关键词: Risky; Futures; Toward; Computational; Process

A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?

关于人们的偏好，我们知道很多。现在人们喜欢他们的奖励。大多数人更喜欢今天的10美元，而不是一个月后的20美元。风险也没有吸引力；一定的10美元比50%的机会得到25美元更有吸引力。令人惊讶的是，人们对延迟和风险之间的相互作用知之甚少。也就是说，对于人们是喜欢现在的10美元，还是一个月后50%的概率得到50美元，我们知之甚少。这个项目将结合实验和认知模型来检验这三种类型的选择。结果将是一个新的计算模型，它将阐明延迟和风险之间复杂的相互作用，从而回答文献中一个持久的问题：风险和延迟在心理上是等同的吗？