Unifying decisions from experience and description

统一经验和描述的决策

• 批准号: DP160101186
• 负责人: Prof Benjamin Newell
• 金额: $ 20.36万
• 依托单位: The University of New South Wales
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP160101186
• 关键词: Unifying; decisions; experience; description

The project aims to answer an enduring question: are separate theories required for decisions from experience and description? For some decisions, potential outcomes and probabilities are known – a gamble offering a 10 per cent chance to win $100 or a 90 per cent chance of nothing, for example. For many others, there is no ‘look-up table’ of probabilities and outcomes and so we must learn them via experience. Intriguingly, risky choices made on the basis of described or experienced information differ markedly. This project examines why this divergence occurs. The project plans to test an innovative approach that unifies both types of decisions into a single theoretical framework and provides a suite of empirical and modelling results.

该项目旨在回答一个长期存在的问题：根据经验和描述进行决策需要独立的理论吗？对于某些决定，潜在的结果和概率是已知的-例如，一场赌博提供了10%的机会赢得100美元或90%的机会什么都没有。对于许多其他人来说，没有概率和结果的“查找表”，所以我们必须通过经验来学习它们。有趣的是，根据描述的信息或经验信息做出的风险选择有明显的不同。这个项目研究了为什么会出现这种分歧。该项目计划测试一种创新方法，将这两种类型的决策统一到一个单一的理论框架中，并提供一套经验和建模结果。