Study of Dynamic Processes of Infrastructure Planning Corresponding to the Population Changes in Quantity and Quality

基础设施规划对应人口数量和质量变化的动态过程研究

• 批准号: 16206052
• 负责人: ANDO Asao
• 金额: $ 23.55万
• 依托单位: Tohoku University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16206052/
• 关键词: population changes in quantity and quality; urban structural analysis; dynamic analysis; new economic geography; location-competition game; spatial CGE model; cost-benefit analysis; spatial time-series econometrics; 少子高齢化; 世代重複モデル; 2国拡張ソローモデル

A rapid population decrease happens in Japan as a result of the fertility decline. There is no problem in population decrease itself from the viewpoint of the resource allocation. Econom ical and/or social strains may occur in the transitional phase. The population is changing qualitatively, too. A decrease in labor force alters production and demands for goods and services. On the other hand, the increase in fossil fuel consumption, which caused by population growth and improving living standards in developing countries, is more important issue for the entire world. This is the reason why a phrase "quantitative and qualitative change in the population" is included in the title of this research instead of a phrase "declining birthrate and an aging population". "City structural analysis" and "dynamics analysis" are other main keywords. In traditional urban planning and land planning in Japan, assuming economic growth, the goal was maximizing social welfare. We should focus on quality and selective withdrawal in the future. This study aimed at a comprehensive study on analysis and evaluation techniques appropriate for the situation of population decline.This research report includes 11 theoretical or empirical articles. They are related with any of the three keywords. We classified the nine thesis based on modeling the space, and composed three chapters of them. These are (1) analysis of changes in the urban population, (2) dynamic analysis model of regional population change, and (3) a spatiotemporal analysis of discrete-space model. Another chapter is composed of two papers in which the falling birthrate and aging are analyzed from original aspects. Quantitative and qualitative changes in the population are the theme that is important in both the land development program and the macroeconomics. We are going to continue a multidirectional study aiming at more useful result.

由于生育率下降，日本人口迅速减少。从资源配置的角度看，人口减少本身不存在问题。在过渡阶段可能出现经济和（或）社会紧张。人口也在发生质的变化。劳动力的减少改变了生产和对商品和服务的需求。另一方面，由于发展中国家人口增长和生活水平提高而导致的化石燃料消耗的增加，对整个世界来说是一个更重要的问题。这就是为什么在本研究的标题中使用了“人口的量变和质变”而不是“出生率下降和人口老龄化”的原因。“城市结构分析”和“动态分析”是其他主要关键词。在日本传统的城市规划和土地规划中，假设经济增长，目标是最大化社会福利。今后应注重质量和选择性退出。本研究旨在对适合人口下降情况的分析与评价技术进行综合研究。本研究报告包括11篇理论或实证文章。它们与三个关键字中的任何一个都相关。在空间建模的基础上对这九篇论文进行了分类，分为三章。分别是：(1)城市人口变化分析；(2)区域人口变化动态分析模型；(3)离散空间模型的时空分析。另一章由两篇论文组成，从原创性的角度分析了出生率下降和老龄化问题。人口的数量和质量变化是土地开发计划和宏观经济学中重要的主题。我们将继续进行多方向的研究，以期获得更有用的结果。

项目成果

都市サブセンター形成の経済分析

城市副中心形成的经济分析

• 发表时间: 2005
• 作者: K.Nishiguchi;H.Inokawa;Y.Ono;A.Fujiwara;Y.Takahashi;Kumiko NAKAMICHI;佐々木公明
• 通讯作者: 佐々木公明

Do Migrants React to Infrastructure Difference between Urban and Rural Areas? Development of an Extended Harris-Todaro Model

农民工对城乡基础设施差异有何反应？

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies 17-1(Printing)
• 作者: Issah;I.;Khan;T.Y.;Sasaki;K.
• 通讯作者: K.

Do migrants react to infrastructure difference between urban and rural area?: development of an extended Harris-Todaro model

移民对城乡基础设施差异有反应吗？：哈里斯-托达罗扩展模型的发展

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies 17
• 作者: °Sung Young PARK;Nobuhiko YUI;Yusuke KAWAKAMI;Nicolas Clement;Hiroshi TAMURA;佐々木 公明
• 通讯作者: 佐々木 公明

頭脳流出が途上国の技術進歩と人的資本蓄積に与える影響

人才流失对发展中国家技术进步和人力资本积累的影响

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: 応用地域学研究 12
• 作者: Yusuke;KAWAKAMI;Yeong;Flee;CHO;Nicolas Clement;Masanobu Tokai;Hiroshi Tamura;加藤真紀・福山敬・安藤朝夫
• 通讯作者: 加藤真紀・福山敬・安藤朝夫

A Test Statistic for Space-Time Autocorrelations : An Applica-tion to the Land Prices in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

时空自相关检验统计量:在东京都地区土地价格中的应用

• 发表时间: 2007
• 作者: 横井渉央;安藤朝夫
• 通讯作者: 安藤朝夫