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Study of Dynamic Processes of Infrastructure Planning Corresponding to the Population Changes in Quantity and Quality

基础设施规划对应人口数量和质量变化的动态过程研究

基本信息

批准号：
16206052
负责人：
ANDO Asao
金额：
$ 23.55万
依托单位：
Tohoku University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16206052/
关键词：
population changes in quantity and quality urban structural analysis dynamic analysis new economic geography location-competition game spatial CGE model cost-benefit analysis spatial time-series econometrics 少子高齢化世代重複モデル 2国拡張ソローモデル

项目摘要

A rapid population decrease happens in Japan as a result of the fertility decline. There is no problem in population decrease itself from the viewpoint of the resource allocation. Econom ical and/or social strains may occur in the transitional phase. The population is changing qualitatively, too. A decrease in labor force alters production and demands for goods and services. On the other hand, the increase in fossil fuel consumption, which caused by population growth and improving living standards in developing countries, is more important issue for the entire world. This is the reason why a phrase "quantitative and qualitative change in the population" is included in the title of this research instead of a phrase "declining birthrate and an aging population". "City structural analysis" and "dynamics analysis" are other main keywords. In traditional urban planning and land planning in Japan, assuming economic growth, the goal was maximizing social welfare. We should focus on quality and selective withdrawal in the future. This study aimed at a comprehensive study on analysis and evaluation techniques appropriate for the situation of population decline.This research report includes 11 theoretical or empirical articles. They are related with any of the three keywords. We classified the nine thesis based on modeling the space, and composed three chapters of them. These are (1) analysis of changes in the urban population, (2) dynamic analysis model of regional population change, and (3) a spatiotemporal analysis of discrete-space model. Another chapter is composed of two papers in which the falling birthrate and aging are analyzed from original aspects. Quantitative and qualitative changes in the population are the theme that is important in both the land development program and the macroeconomics. We are going to continue a multidirectional study aiming at more useful result.

由于生育率下降，日本人口迅速减少。从资源配置的角度来看，人口减少本身没有问题。经济和/或社会压力可能发生在过渡阶段。人口也在发生质的变化。劳动力的减少改变了商品和服务的生产和需求。另一方面，发展中国家人口增长和生活水平提高所导致的化石燃料消费的增加对整个世界来说是一个更重要的问题。这就是为什么在本研究的标题中使用“人口数量和质量的变化”而不是“出生率下降和人口老龄化”的原因。“城市结构分析”和“动态分析”是其他主要关键词。在日本传统的城市规划和土地规划中，假设经济增长，目标是社会福利最大化。今后要注重质量，有选择地退出。本研究旨在对适合人口减少情况的分析和评估技术进行综合研究，本研究报告包括11篇理论或实证文章。它们与三个关键词中的任何一个都相关。本文从空间造型的角度对这九篇论文进行了分类，共分为三章。这三个模型是：（1）城市人口变动分析模型;（2）区域人口变动动态分析模型;（3）离散空间时空分析模型。第二章由两篇论文组成，对出生率下降和老龄化问题进行了原创性的分析。人口数量和质量的变化是土地开发计划和宏观经济中的重要主题。我们将继续进行多方面的研究，以期得到更多有用的结果。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（36）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

都市サブセンター形成の経済分析

城市副中心形成的经济分析

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
K.Nishiguchi;H.Inokawa;Y.Ono;A.Fujiwara;Y.Takahashi;Kumiko NAKAMICHI;佐々木公明
通讯作者：
佐々木公明

Do Migrants React to Infrastructure Difference between Urban and Rural Areas? Development of an Extended Harris-Todaro Model

农民工对城乡基础设施差异有何反应？

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies 17-1(Printing)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Issah;I.;Khan;T.Y.;Sasaki;K.
通讯作者：
K.

Do migrants react to infrastructure difference between urban and rural area?: development of an extended Harris-Todaro model

移民对城乡基础设施差异有反应吗？：哈里斯-托达罗扩展模型的发展

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies 17
影响因子：
0
作者：
°Sung Young PARK;Nobuhiko YUI;Yusuke KAWAKAMI;Nicolas Clement;Hiroshi TAMURA;佐々木公明
通讯作者：
佐々木公明

頭脳流出が途上国の技術進歩と人的資本蓄積に与える影響

人才流失对发展中国家技术进步和人力资本积累的影响