Evaluation System for the Transport Infrastructure Development Based on a Multi-regional Econometric Model with Regional Price Differentials.

这项研究旨在开发评估大规模交通运输改善对区域经济影响的工具。我们一直在研究这个模型，它主要是为了描述中国经济。(1)初始模型涉及非常复杂的迭代过程。我们修改了模型的计算程序，简化了编码，并计算了1987年新基年的基准均衡。第四章报告了我们的结果与北京表和当年可用的临时区域间表的比较。(2)初始模型旨在计算达到网络均衡的价格和数量。在这一点上，该模型与CGE模型有着相似的目标，尽管它只考虑了均衡条件的一部分。为了更好地理解模型的基本框架，在第二章给出了由企业、运输企业和家庭组成的封闭经济的简化模型，证明了该问题的均衡条件与区域间投入产出系统完全一致。(4)第三章给出了包含公共部门、外国和储蓄-投资行为的完整模型，并考虑了中国的统计数据。讨论了与内生变量替代集合对应的模型可能的修正。(5)将该模型框架应用于阪神-Awaji地震的经济损失评估。第五章介绍的这个模型只考虑了数量范围内的均衡，因为运输中断引起的价格变化很小。作为回报，引入了三种运输方式，以密切审查运输设施受损的影响。

The study is aimed at developing the tool to evaluate the impacts of largescale transport improvements on regional economies. We have been working on the model which primarily intended to describe the Chinese economy.(1)The initial model involves very complicated iterative procedures. We revised the computational procedure of the model to simplify its coding, and calculate the benchmark equilibrium for the new base year of 1987. The comparisons of our results with the Peking table and the interim interregional table available for that year are reported in Chapter 4.(2)The initial model is intended to calculate prices and quantities that attain the network equilibrium. In this regard, the model shares the similar goal as the CGE model though it considers only a part of equilibrium conditions. Thus we rebuilt the model as a multi-regional CGE model.(3)To help understanding the basic framework of the model, the simplified model for a closed economy consisting from firms, transport firms and households is presented in Chapter 2. It is shown that the equilibrium conditions for the problem are fully consistent with the interregional input-output system.(4)The full model that incorporates the public sector, foreign countries, and savings-investment behavior is presented in Chapter 3 with consideration of the availability of Chinese statistics. The possible modifications to the model that correspond to the alternative sets of endogenous variables are also discussed.(5)The model framework is applied to the assessment of economic losses caused by the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. This version of the model, presented in Chapter 5, considers the equilibrium only in the quantity sphere as the price changes due to the transport interruption were minimal. In return, three transport modes are introduced to closely examine the effects of the damages in transport facilities.