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A study on space-time changes in land prices based on the land price data-base in Tokyo Metropolitan Area

基于东京都地区地价数据库的地价时空变化研究

基本信息

批准号：
09650578
负责人：
ANDO Asao
金额：
$ 2.05万
依托单位：
TOHOKU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09650578/
关键词：
land prices public notification space-time database diffusion model space-time autocorrelation overlapping generation model spatial weight matrix ヘドニック関数

项目摘要

This study is aimed at clarifying the space-time characteristics of land asset bubbles from three different viewpoints.The first is to check whether the diffusion process succeeds in reproducing the space-time changes in land prices when the data from the downward phase being included. Thus we first extend our data period to 1996 from the original duration of 1976 to 91. The compilation procedure includes estimations of 21 cross-sectional land price functions, whose parameters are to summarize the changes in land price formations in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Accordingly, chapter 1 is devoted to the discussions on the technical alterations needed to extend our data base along with the chronological changes in parameters in land price functions. Chapter 2 utilizes the data base obtained above to examine the applicability of the diffusion model to the downward phase. The parameters obtained from both one and two-dimensional models are compared with those based on the data limited to the uprising phase.The second direction is to analyze the data as the spatial or space-time autocorrelation processes. In preparation for the direction, chapter 3 reviews the methods of hypothesis testing and parameter estimation under spatial autocorrelation. As an application, chapter 4 discusses a spatial error autocorrelation model with the hierarchical spatial weights, and applies the model to the land price data in Kawasaki City.Unlike the previous two directions, the third one is an effort to theoretically explain land price formations based on the dynamic behaviors of economic agents. An overlapping generation model considering land and financial assets may serve for the purpose. Along this line, chapter 5 formulates a prototype model that considers the saving behavior of households.

本研究从三个不同的角度探讨了土地资产泡沫的时空特征：第一个是检验在包含下跌阶段的数据时，扩散过程是否成功地再现了土地价格的时空变化;因此，我们首先将我们的数据周期从最初的1976年延长到1996年。编制过程包括估计21个横截面的土地价格函数，其参数是总结东京都区的土地价格形成的变化。因此，第一章专门讨论了技术上的修改，需要扩大我们的数据库沿着在土地价格函数参数的时间变化。第二章利用前面得到的数据库来检验扩散模型对下行阶段的适用性。第二个方向是将数据作为空间或时空自相关过程进行分析。第三章回顾了空间自相关条件下的假设检验和参数估计方法，为今后的研究方向做准备。作为应用，第四章讨论了一个具有层次空间权重的空间误差自相关模型，并将其应用于川崎市的地价数据。与前两个方向不同的是，第三个方向是从经济主体的动态行为出发，从理论上解释地价的形成。一个考虑土地和金融资产的重叠发电模型可以达到这个目的。沿着这一思路，第五章建立了一个考虑家庭储蓄行为的原型模型。