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International Comparison on worldwide changes in Statistical Survey Environment and Development of Statistics based on Registration - Possibility and Perspective of 2000 years World Popuration Census

基于登记的世界范围统计调查环境变化与统计发展的国际比较——2000年世界人口普查的可能性与展望

基本信息

批准号：
10044034
负责人：
HAMASUNA Keiro
金额：
$ 5.95万
依托单位：
KYUSU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1998 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The subject of this research-project is empirically to study the methodological change of population census and the development of statistical policy in the advanced countris and to find out their perspecitves from the international viewpoint in oder to grope for the new direction of official Statistics that is pressed to the fundamental conversion mainly due to the serious problems of survey-conditions.In this research first we surveyed the actual preperation and conduct of the 2000 Round World Population Census, specailly the underaccount problem in the U.S.A and the U.K.and the methodlogical changing problem from the census based on the traditonal surveymethod to one on the administerative registers in the Eupopian continental countries.Secondly we held the international conferences on the population cenusus at the Kyushu Univ., the Japanese Statistical Institute (Housei-Univ.) and the Census-Survey Center of Manchester Univ. and by the cooperative reports and discussions we could confirm that the political and social causes for the fundamental change of census method are (1) the public low acceptance of population cenus, (2) the growing census cost and the financia land organizational weakness of local authority, and (3) the develpment of automated admisterative register system in the governmental agencies.The survey-results and cooperative reports were published in the Bulletins of Japanese Statistical Insitute and on the base of them we made the political speech toward the Japanese 2000 Poulation Census.Finaly, because of the institution of Population Register with the unified personal idetification number system we are planning and organaising the new international research project to the possiblity of the census based on the administerative registe rand its influence on the official statistical system.

本研究课题的主要目的是从国际的角度，对发达国家人口普查方法的变化和统计政策的发展进行实证研究，以探索其发展前景，从而探索由于人口普查方法存在的严重问题而被迫进行根本性转变的官方统计的新方向。在这项研究中，我们首先调查了2000年世界人口普查的实际准备和进行情况，特别是美国和英国的欠计问题，以及从传统调查方法的人口普查向传统调查方法的人口普查的方法转换问题，其次，我们在九州大学举行了关于人口普查的国际会议，日本统计研究所（Housei-Univ）和曼彻斯特大学人口普查中心的合作报告和讨论可以证实，人口普查方法发生根本性变化的政治和社会原因是：（1）公众对人口普查的接受度低，（2）人口普查费用的不断增加和地方政府财政土地组织的薄弱，（3）政府机关自动受理登记系统的发展。结果和合作报告发表在日本统计研究所的公报上，并在此基础上发表了政治演讲，最后，由于日本实行了统一的个人识别号码系统的人口登记制度，我们正在计划和组织新的国际研究项目，研究基于行政登记的人口普查的可能性兰德对官方统计系统的影响。