International Comparison on worldwide changes in Statistical Survey Environment and Development of Statistics based on Registration - Possibility and Perspective of 2000 years World Popuration Census

本研究项目的主题是实证研究发达国家人口普查方法的变化和统计政策的发展，并从国际视角了解它们的观点，以探索官方统计的新方向，这一方向主要是由于调查条件的严重问题而被迫进行的。本研究首先调查了2000年世界人口普查的实际筹备和进行情况。特别是美国和英国的人口不足问题，以及从以传统调查方法为基础的人口普查向欧亚大陆国家行政登记册普查的方法转变问题。和曼彻斯特大学人口普查中心。通过合作报告和讨论，我们可以确定人口普查方法发生根本性变化的政治和社会原因是(1)公众对人口普查中心的低接受性，(2)人口普查成本的增长和地方政府财政土地组织的薄弱，(3)政府机构自动管理登记系统的发展。调查结果和合作报告发表在日本统计机构的公报上，并在此基础上发表了对日本2000年人口普查的政治讲话。最后，由于统一个人身份号码系统的人口登记制度的建立，我们正在计划和组织新的国际研究项目，以探讨基于行政登记的人口普查的可能性及其对官方统计制度的影响。

The subject of this research-project is empirically to study the methodological change of population census and the development of statistical policy in the advanced countris and to find out their perspecitves from the international viewpoint in oder to grope for the new direction of official Statistics that is pressed to the fundamental conversion mainly due to the serious problems of survey-conditions.In this research first we surveyed the actual preperation and conduct of the 2000 Round World Population Census, specailly the underaccount problem in the U.S.A and the U.K.and the methodlogical changing problem from the census based on the traditonal surveymethod to one on the administerative registers in the Eupopian continental countries.Secondly we held the international conferences on the population cenusus at the Kyushu Univ., the Japanese Statistical Institute (Housei-Univ.) and the Census-Survey Center of Manchester Univ. and by the cooperative reports and discussions we could confirm that the political and social causes for the fundamental change of census method are (1) the public low acceptance of population cenus, (2) the growing census cost and the financia land organizational weakness of local authority, and (3) the develpment of automated admisterative register system in the governmental agencies.The survey-results and cooperative reports were published in the Bulletins of Japanese Statistical Insitute and on the base of them we made the political speech toward the Japanese 2000 Poulation Census.Finaly, because of the institution of Population Register with the unified personal idetification number system we are planning and organaising the new international research project to the possiblity of the census based on the administerative registe rand its influence on the official statistical system.