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An Economic Analysis of Declining Fertility

生育率下降的经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
10430009
负责人：
TAKAYAMA Noriyuki
金额：
$ 7.42万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1998 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10430009/
关键词：
Declining Population Total Fertility Rate Opportunity Cost for Child-raising Established Sex Roles between Men and Women Excess-Supply Economy Behavior of Marriage Customary Working Practice Reconciling Market Work and Child-raising パラサイト・

项目摘要

1. There are mainly three reasons for declining fertility in recent Japan : (1) increases in opportunity costs for child-raising, (2) the established sex roles of men and women, and (3) increasing economic rationale for having no-kids from individualistic point of view.2. A society of declining fertility will suffer from an excess-supply economy, which may make a sharp contrast with a society of aging populations under an excess-demand economy.3. Declining fertility used to be a problem of quantity. It turns out, however, to be a problem of quality, as well. Declining children in number will cause less competition among them, leading to lower quality of children.4. Some people advocate to increase labor force participation of females along with later retirement against a declining population in Japan. It will turn out, however, that such a policy would not cancel out declining populations fully in the 21st century. Continuous and massive imports of foreign guest workers will be required, then.5. It is necessary to change customary working practice of Japanese males for the declining fertility to return to a higher level. It is usually quite abnormal in that working males have little time to spare for home responsibilities. The practice has been intensifying the established sex roles of men and women, forcing them unable to reconcile market work and home work.6. It is necessary to have different work incentives for Japanese males to change their working practice. Salaries have to be based not on the length of working hours but on the working output. Promotions have to be based not on senioritis but on the competence. Overtime pay should be increased considerably.

1.近年来日本生育率下降的原因主要有三个：（1）抚养孩子的机会成本增加;（2）男女性别角色的固定化;（3）从个人主义观点来看，不生孩子的经济理由增加。生育率下降的社会将遭受过度供给经济，这可能与过度需求经济下的人口老龄化社会形成鲜明对比。生育率下降过去是数量问题。然而，事实证明，这也是一个质量问题。孩子数量的减少会导致他们之间的竞争减少，导致孩子质量的下降。有人主张，在日本人口减少的情况下，应沿着延迟退休，提高女性的劳动参与率。然而，事实将证明，这样的政策不会在21世纪完全抵消人口下降。那么，将需要持续大量进口外国客工。5.为了使下降的生育率恢复到更高的水平，有必要改变日本男性的传统工作做法。这通常是很不正常的，因为有工作的男性几乎没有时间来承担家庭责任。这种做法强化了男女的既定性别角色，迫使他们无法兼顾市场工作和家庭工作。有必要为日本男性提供不同的工作激励措施，以改变他们的工作习惯。工资不应以工作时间的长短为依据，而应以工作产出为依据。晋升不能以资历为依据，而要以能力为依据。加班费应大幅增加。