An Economic Analysis of Declining Fertility

1. 近年来日本生育率下降的原因主要有三个：(1)抚养孩子的机会成本增加；(2)男女性别角色的确立；(3)从个人主义的角度来看，不生孩子的经济理由越来越多。生育率下降的社会将遭受供过于求的经济，这可能与需求过剩的人口老龄化社会形成鲜明对比。生育率下降曾经是一个数量问题。但事实证明，这也是一个质量问题。孩子数量的减少会导致他们之间的竞争减少，从而导致孩子的质量下降。针对日本人口的减少，一些人主张提高女性的劳动参与率，同时推迟退休年龄。然而，在21世纪，这样的政策将无法完全抵消人口下降的影响。因此，将需要持续大量地进口外来工。要使日本不断下降的生育力恢复到较高水平，有必要改变日本男性的劳动习惯。这通常是很不正常的，因为有工作的男性几乎没有时间来承担家庭责任。5 .这种做法加剧了男人和女人的既定性别角色，迫使他们无法协调市场工作和家庭工作。有必要为日本男性提供不同的工作激励，以改变他们的工作习惯。工资不应以工作时间长短为基础，而应以工作产出为基础。晋升不是基于资历，而是基于能力。加班费应该大幅增加。

1. There are mainly three reasons for declining fertility in recent Japan : (1) increases in opportunity costs for child-raising, (2) the established sex roles of men and women, and (3) increasing economic rationale for having no-kids from individualistic point of view.2. A society of declining fertility will suffer from an excess-supply economy, which may make a sharp contrast with a society of aging populations under an excess-demand economy.3. Declining fertility used to be a problem of quantity. It turns out, however, to be a problem of quality, as well. Declining children in number will cause less competition among them, leading to lower quality of children.4. Some people advocate to increase labor force participation of females along with later retirement against a declining population in Japan. It will turn out, however, that such a policy would not cancel out declining populations fully in the 21st century. Continuous and massive imports of foreign guest workers will be required, then.5. It is necessary to change customary working practice of Japanese males for the declining fertility to return to a higher level. It is usually quite abnormal in that working males have little time to spare for home responsibilities. The practice has been intensifying the established sex roles of men and women, forcing them unable to reconcile market work and home work.6. It is necessary to have different work incentives for Japanese males to change their working practice. Salaries have to be based not on the length of working hours but on the working output. Promotions have to be based not on senioritis but on the competence. Overtime pay should be increased considerably.