Multivariate Analysis of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components

本文提出了一种新的总和生育率的多变量分析方法， 这是一个非常重要的组成部分，适用于个人层面的调查或普查数据。离散时间多变量生存模型， 互补对数-对数（CLL）模型用于对奇偶性进展进行建模。(The一个女人的生育率是 她所生的孩子）。一个单独的CLL模型估计每个奇偶过渡。预测器 变量必须包括妇女在开始产次时的年龄（从生育到初婚的过渡除外， 每个人都开始在同一年龄），并可能包括额外的社会经济变量（广泛认为， 还包括健康、人口统计、环境和其他变量）。对于指定的CLL模型， 社会经济变量的值，按女性年龄、产次和持续时间划分的离散时间失败概率 平等。这些失败概率使得能够计算出一个生命表，该生命表按照年龄、产次和性别对妇女进行跟踪。 15至50岁之间的生育期。因为这个生命表是多变量的，所以所有的测量值都是 也是多元的。所考虑的措施包括产次进展比（PPR）、平均值和 初婚年龄中位数、平均和中位数封闭式生育间隔、特定年龄生育率、平均和 生育年龄中位数（包括总体和按出生顺序）、总婚姻生育率和总生育率。的 这种方法允许按一个社会经济领域的类别计算这些措施的"调整"值。 变量，同时保持其他社会经济变量的平均值不变。该方法还 能够对两个或多个调查中这些测量的趋势进行多变量分析。分析可以而且将会 对总生育率及其组成部分的时期计量和群组计量都要进行。的方法 需要出生记录该方法将使用1993年、1998年和2003年菲律宾的 人口和健康调查（DHS），包括出生史。在人口普查数据的情况下， 不包括出生历史，该方法适用于"重建的出生历史"。“举个例子， 新的方法将使用重建的出生历史来估计国际影响， 基于1%的公共使用，美国的TFR及其每个组成部分的迁移 1990年美国的微数据样本（Microdata Sample，简称CAMS）。S.人口普查应用该方法分析了 儿童死亡率对印度生育率的影响已经下降，因为它现在是Retherford的主要部分。 研究助理博士论文新的方法论涉及方法论的主要扩展 在早期的R03资助期间开发的（"婚姻和生育力变化的组成部分"，5R03HD45508 - 2，PI： Retherford）于2007年11月30日到期。

This application proposes a new method of multivariate analysis of the total fertility rate (TFR) and its components, applied to individual-level survey or census data. A discrete-time multivariate survival model, the complementary log-log (CLL) model, is used to model parity progression. (The parity of a woman is the number of children that she has ever born.) A separate CLL model is estimated for each parity transition. Predictor variables must include woman's age at starting parity (except for the birth-to-first-marriage transition, where everyone starts at the same age) and may include additional socioeconomic variables (broadly conceived to also include health, demographic, environmental, and other variables). The CLL models yield, for specified values of the socioeconomic variables, discrete-time failure probabilities by woman's age, parity, and duration in parity. These failure probabilities enable calculation of a life table that follows women by age, parity, and duration in parity between the ages of 15 and 50. Because this life table is multivariate, all measures calculated from it are also multivariate. The measures considered include parity progression ratios (PPRs), mean and median ages at first marriage, mean and median closed birth intervals, age-specific fertility rates, mean and median ages at childbearing (both overall and by birth order), total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and TFR. The methodology allows calculation of "adjusted" values of these measures by categories of one socioeconomic variable while holding other socioeconomic variables constant at their mean values. The methodology also enables multivariate analysis of trends in these measures over two or more surveys. The analysis can and will be done for both period measures and cohort measures of the TFR and its components. The methodology requires birth histories. The methodology will be tested and refined using the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Philippines Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which include birth histories. In the case of census data, which do not include birth histories, the methodology is applied to "reconstructed birth histories." By way of illustration, the new methodology will be applied using reconstructed birth histories to estimate the effect of international migration on the TFR and each of its components in the United States, based on a 1 percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) from the 1990 U. S. census. An application of the methodology to analyze the effect of child mortality on fertility in India has been dropped, because it is now the major part of Retherford’s research assistant’s Ph.D. dissertation. The new methodology involves major extensions of methodology developed during an earlier R03 grant (“Components of Nuptiality and Fertility Change,” 5R03HD45508-2, PI: Retherford) that expired November 30, 2007.