Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Technology Global Spillover and its Effect on Competitiveness Structure

人员、货物和信息的跨界流动急剧增加，技术与资本存量和劳动力的互补性增加，加速了全球技术溢出效应的增长和蔓延。面对研发停滞，有效利用多源聚集的全球市场技术已成为重要的竞争策略，导致对外溢技术的同化能力（利用该外溢技术的能力）的关注日益增加。事实上，如何有效地利用这种替代潜力已成为行业最关键的研发战略之一。尽管日本在20世纪80年代之前具有很强的同化能力，但在20世纪90年代，日本的同化能力已经恶化，对这一问题的补救已经迫在眉睫。本文从理论和实证两方面分析了(1)技术溢出对生产增长的贡献机制，以及(2)吸收能力的作用，并对吸收能力的趋势和控制因素进行了数值分析。此外，本研究试图找出同化能力的来源和控制机制，以期为产业研发战略的重组提供建议。研究表明：(1)同化能力在构建技术溢出的良性循环和引导“技术主人”（在市场上获得溢出技术）的未来轨迹中起着关键作用；(2)劳动力素质是同化能力的决定性因素，而劳动力素质受信息化、老龄化趋势和制度制度的制约；在经济零增长或负增长、全球化、产业结构服务化和社会快速老龄化的新范式下，与制度体系变化相适应的信息化系统推进和精心设计的研发投入是产业技术管理战略的重要主题。少

A dramatic increase in the transboundary flow of people, goods and information together with an increase in technology complementarity with capital stock and labor forces has accelerated the growth and spread of global technology spillovers.Facing the R＆D stagnation, effective utilization of technology from the global marketplace gathered from multiple sources has become an important competitive strategy leading to greater concern for assimilation capacity of spillover technology (the ability to utilize this spillover technology). In fact, how effectively utilize this substitution potential has become one of the most crucial R＆D strategies for industry. Notwithstanding its strong assimilation capacity p until the 1980s, Japan's capacity has deteriorated in the 1990s and the remediation of this problem has become urgent.This research, uses both theoretical and empirical analyzes of the mechanisms of (i) technology spillover contribution to production increase, and (ii) the role of assim … More ilation, in addition to a numerical analyzes of the trends in assimilation capacity and the governing factors of this capacity. Furthermore, this investigation attempts to identify the sources and mechanism governing assimilation capacity, in order to extract suggestions for restructuring industry's R＆D strategy.This research suggests that (i) assimilation capacity plays a key role in constructing a virtuous cycle of technology spillover and leading the future trajectory of "technology hosts" (which acquire spillover technology in the market place), (ii) the quality of labor is a decisive factor in assimilation capacity, and this quality is governed by informatization, the aging trend and the institutional system, (iii) therefore, the systematic advancement of informatization and carefully designed R＆D investment corresponding to changing institutional systems under the new paradigm characterized by zero or minus economic growth, globalization, a service intensified industrial structure, and a rapidly aging society are crucial subjects for industry's techno-managerial strategy. Less