Microscopic measurement of internal rate of return in manufacturing industries and comparative analysis on its determinants and competitiveness : 1955-1995

本研究测量了1955-1995年间日本制造业R&D的内部收益率。并进一步分析了其决定因素与竞争力之间的关系。研究结果如下：(1)日本R&D内部收益率呈长期低迷趋势。在70年代以前，日本的R&D内部收益率水平高于其他国家，但近年来相对较低。(2)技术边际生产率和R&D内部收益率不仅与日本自身的R&D努力密切相关，而且与其对技术溢出的同化能力密切相关。(3)技术溢出同化能力的边际生产率取决于劳动力素质。(4)劳动力素质受1)信息化发展，2)老龄化社会的变化，3)国家特有的制度体系。(5)1)和2)情况在所有发达国家中都是常见的。美国重建了其制度体系，以消除对日本的相对弱点(例如。JIT、TQC等)，而日本无法重建其系统。因此，日本对技术溢出的同化能力相对减弱。(6)上述制度环境对近期的国际竞争力格局产生了强烈的影响。

In this study, the internal rate of return of R&D in Japanese manufacturing industry from 1955 to 1995 was measured. And further analysis on the relationship between its determinants and competitiveness was made. The results are described below.(1) The internal rate of return of R&D in Japan is on the long-term downturn trend. Until 70s, Japan had a relatively higher level of internal rate of return of R&D than other countries, but in recent years, it has a relatively lower level.(2) The marginal productivity of technology and internal rate of return of R&D are closely related to not only their own R&D effort but their assimilation capacity of technological spillover.(3) The marginal productivity of assimilation capacity of technological spillover is dependent on the quality of labor force.(4) The quality of labor force is influenced by 1) the development of informatization, 2) the change to the aging society, 3) the country specific institutional systems.(5) The situations of 1) and 2) are common among all advanced countries. The US reconstructed its institutional systems to cancel the relatively weak points to Japan (ex. JIT, TQC etc.), while Japan couldn't reconstruct its systems. As the result, the assimilation capacity of technological spillover in Japan has weakened relatively.(6) The environment described above system described above makes the strong impacts on the recent international structure of competitiveness.