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DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF INVESTIGATION METHOD FOR PERFORMANCE OF LIFELINE SYSTEM ON EARTHQUAKE HAZARD

地震灾害生命线系统性能调查方法的开发与应用

基本信息

批准号：
12555138
负责人：
HOSHIYA Masaru
金额：
$ 2.62万
依托单位：
Musashi Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The main theme of this study is the seismic risk management of a lifeline system, which evaluates the seismic risk quantitatively and consider how to decrease the seismic risk. One of the countermeasures against the earthquake is to increase the redundancy of system and thus a redundancy index RE is proposed with information entropy, which can express the redundancy of the system objectively. And the redundancy index RE is applied to the Kobe water distribution network as case studies whose productions are presented on the international conferences and ran in the journals of JSCE and ASCE. And the earthquake insurance is also excellent countermeasure against the earthquake, which can compensate the loss of system with money. Therefore the optimum premium between the insurance company and the user is discussed, whose production is published.And on the other hand, the basic studies to prefer the optimum countermeasure against the earthquake on the utility function and the recognition degree of citizens on the risk are carried on. And the study of integration for conditional random fields is approached to investigate the performance of system on the earthquake hazard.For the future study, the Stochastic DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method, which is able to evaluate the system performance with not only loss of the system against the earthquake but also' asset of the system facilities, is discussed.

本文研究的主要内容是生命线系统的地震风险管理，即对生命线系统的地震风险进行定量评估，并考虑如何降低地震风险。抗震对策之一是增加系统的冗余度，为此提出了一种基于信息熵的冗余度指标RE，该指标能客观地反映系统的冗余度。并将冗余度指标RE应用于科比供水管网的实例研究，其研究成果在国际会议上发表，并发表在JSCE和ASCE杂志上。而地震保险也是一种很好的防震措施，它可以用金钱补偿系统的损失。在此基础上，讨论了保险公司和用户之间的最优保费问题，并给出了最优保费的计算结果。从效用函数和公民对风险的认知程度两个方面进行了优选最优防震对策的基础研究，并对条件随机场的积分研究进行了探讨，以考察系统对地震灾害的性能。在未来的研究中，随机折现现金流（DCF）方法，这是能够评估系统的性能，不仅对系统的地震损失，而且系统的设施的资产。