DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF INVESTIGATION METHOD FOR PERFORMANCE OF LIFELINE SYSTEM ON EARTHQUAKE HAZARD

本文以生命线系统地震风险管理为研究主题，对生命线系统的地震风险进行定量评估，并考虑如何降低生命线系统的地震风险。提高系统的冗余度是应对地震的对策之一，为此提出了一种基于信息熵的冗余度指标RE，可以客观地表达系统的冗余度。并将冗余指数RE作为实例应用于神户供水管网，其研究成果已在国际会议上发表，并在JSCE和ASCE期刊上发表。而地震保险也是一种很好的抗震对策，它可以用金钱来补偿系统的损失。因此，讨论了保险公司与用户之间的最优保费，并公布了其产生结果。另一方面，从效用函数和市民对地震风险的认知度两个方面对优选最优的地震对策进行了基础研究。并探讨了条件随机场积分的研究方法，探讨了系统对地震灾害的影响。在未来的研究中，我们讨论了随机现金流贴现法（DCF），该方法不仅可以评估系统的地震损失，还可以评估系统设施的资产。

The main theme of this study is the seismic risk management of a lifeline system, which evaluates the seismic risk quantitatively and consider how to decrease the seismic risk. One of the countermeasures against the earthquake is to increase the redundancy of system and thus a redundancy index RE is proposed with information entropy, which can express the redundancy of the system objectively. And the redundancy index RE is applied to the Kobe water distribution network as case studies whose productions are presented on the international conferences and ran in the journals of JSCE and ASCE. And the earthquake insurance is also excellent countermeasure against the earthquake, which can compensate the loss of system with money. Therefore the optimum premium between the insurance company and the user is discussed, whose production is published.And on the other hand, the basic studies to prefer the optimum countermeasure against the earthquake on the utility function and the recognition degree of citizens on the risk are carried on. And the study of integration for conditional random fields is approached to investigate the performance of system on the earthquake hazard.For the future study, the Stochastic DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method, which is able to evaluate the system performance with not only loss of the system against the earthquake but also' asset of the system facilities, is discussed.