Development of an assessment model of post global warming and environmental conscious society

控制全球变暖，向环境思虑型社会转变，是当今环境问题中最紧迫、最重要的目标。为了设计和提出全球变暖后的社会，迫切需要开发一个模型来预测和评估环境技术发展的有效性，包括社会/经济制度变革在内的各种对策。在本研究中，我们把重点放在建模社会经济系统，其能源和物质消耗，以及随之而来的二氧化碳排放在全球范围内。所建立的模型是1)自下而上的最终用途能源模型和2)自上而下的一般均衡经济模型。我们将这些模型应用于长期的全球二氧化碳排放预测及其控制。对3例病例进行分析。它们是1)在二氧化碳浓度达到550ppm的情况下，2)在早期进行严格的排放控制，3)排放控制先松后紧。此外，我们将该模型应用于亚洲地区至2032年。2032年的预估排放量是1998年排放量的1.7-4.9倍，与对策的严重程度和社会经济情景相对应。

The control of global warming and the conversion to the environmental consideration type society are the most urgent and important target in today's environmental issue. A development a model which projects and assesses effectivenes of environmental technology developments, various countermeasures including social/economic institutional changes is a pressing need in order to design and propose post global warming society.In this research, we put a focus on modeling of social economic system, its energy and material consumption, and consequent carbon dioxide emission in global scale. The developed model is a couple of 1) a bottom-up end-use energy model, and 2) a top-down type general equilibrium economic model.We applied these models to a long-term world CO2 emission projection and its ontrol. Three cases were analyzed. They are 1) in case of 550ppm CO2 concentration target, 2) doing a severe emission control with the early stage, and 3) emission control loose first and tightened later. Moreover, we applied the model for Asian region until 2032. The projected emissions in 2032 are 1.7-4.9 times of 1998 emission, corresponding to the severity of countermeasures and socio-economic scenarios.