New traffic models considering complex geometries and data

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The traditional approach of traffic safety analysis – based on historical accident data – is subject to the restriction that a sufficient number of accidents must have occurred in order to be able to identify accident black spots and take appropriate measures. The predictive possibilities of the traditional approach are therefore limited and should be extended by other possibilities such as model-based predictions or replaced by road safety analyses with safety indicators. Traffic modelling offers the possibility of predicting the number of accidents on a road section based on models. While traffic models of motorway sections are well advanced, models for more complex geometries (e.g. junctions), which are more risky due to changed driving behaviour, are not yet available to the same extent.The goal of this project is therefore to transfer the previous results and data on traffic behaviour on motorway sections to complex geometries of motorway junctions. The newly developed models and numerical methods will be combined with the results obtained to date and supplemented by stochastic approaches (uncertainty) in order to obtain a multi-scale stochastic traffic forecast model for the entire motorway. In addition, the safety indicators will be transferred to weaving traffic and complemented by uncertain parameters.