Sustainable management and planning of hydropower generation in West Africa under climate change and land use/land cover dynamics

水力发电（HPG）是世界上最大的可再生能源，具有多种用途，特别是在西非（WA），它对能源安全做出了重大贡献。然而，这一来源对气候变化很敏感，预估的HPG与不确定性有关。不同流域、不同国家的HPG预估变化幅度和变化标志不同。西澳HPG未来的部分不确定性与观测数据的缺乏有关，这限制了模型的校准和水文动力学的模拟，也与用于强制水文和水资源模型的气候预测有关。与社会经济发展相关的土地利用变化虽然至关重要，但很少被考虑在内，尤其是在多用途水坝上。因此，大坝管理者和地方当局很难在这些不确定性的情况下做出决定或制定计划，以实现气候适应性的目标。该项目旨在与水电项目的利益相关者（水坝管理者、当地政策制定者、民间社会代表）建立实践社区，以应对西澳气候、土地、能源和水关系中的挑战、协同效应和权衡，从而在气候和土地利用变化的背景下实现水电项目的可持续管理和规划。这一目标将通过与利益相关者的两次启发和参与性研讨会、为项目的早期职业研究人员举办的两次培训课程来实现，分别是“随机森林，使用缩小规模的气候数据”（自上而下的方法）和“决策缩放”（自下而上的方法），后者将在加纳、塞内加尔、布基纳法索和科特迪瓦的4座主要水坝中与当地利益相关者一起实施。在实施过程中，项目将通过对这三种做法的比较研究结果，促进4个案例研究之间的分享和共同学习。该项目着眼于可持续发展目标13（气候）、6（水）和7（能源）之间的联系，对可持续HPG的可持续发展目标15（土地）和17（伙伴关系）产生积极影响

Hydropower generation (HPG) represents the largest renewable electricity source with multiple purpose functions worldwide especially in WestAfrica (WA) where it contributes significantly to the energy security. However, this source is sensitive to climate change and projected HPG areassociated with uncertainties. The magnitude and the sign of projected change of HPG vary according to the river basin and country. Part ofuncertainties in the future of HPG in WA is associated with the lack of observations data which limit the calibration of models and the simulation ofhydrological dynamics and also, with uncertainties associated with climate projections used to force hydrological and water resources models. Landuse changes associated with socioeconomic development are rarely taken into account while they are crucial, especially over multi-purpose dams. Itbecomes then difficult for dam managers and local authorities to make decisions or to plan under these uncertainties in the aim to engage in a climateresilient pathway. This project aims to build communities of practice with HPG stakeholders (dam managers, local policy makers, representative ofcivil society) to address the challenges, synergies and trade-off in the climate land energy water nexus in WA for a sustainable management andplanning of HPG under a context of climate and land use changes. This will be achieved through two elicitation and participatory workshops with stakeholders, two training sessions to Early Career Researchers of the project on "Random Forest, use of downscaled climate data" (top-down methods) and "Decision Scaling" (bottom-up method) which will be implemented with local stakeholders in each of the 4 major dams in Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. During the implementation, the project will foster sharing and common learning between the 4 case studies from results of comparative study of these 3 practices. The project targets the nexus between SDG 13 (climate), 6 (water) and 7 (energy) with positive effects on SDG 15 (land) and 17 (partnership) for sustainable HPG