Sustainable management and planning of hydropower generation in West Africa under climate change and land use/land cover dynamics

水力发电是世界上最大的可再生能源，具有多种用途，特别是在西非，它对能源安全做出了重大贡献。然而，这个来源对气候变化很敏感，预计的HPG与不确定因素有关。HPG预计变化的幅度和标志因流域和国家的不同而不同。西澳HPG未来的不确定部分与缺乏观测数据有关，这限制了模型的校准和水文动力学的模拟，还与用于强制水文和水资源模型的气候预测的不确定性有关。与社会经济发展相关的土地利用变化很少被考虑，而这些变化是至关重要的，特别是在多用途大坝上。因此，大坝管理者和地方当局很难在这些不确定的情况下做出决定或计划，以期走上一条适应气候变化的道路。该项目旨在与HPG利益攸关方(大坝管理人员、当地政策制定者、民间社会代表)建立实践社区，以应对西澳气候-土地-能源-水关系中的挑战、协同作用和权衡，以便在气候和土地利用变化的背景下对HPG进行可持续管理和规划。为此，将与利益攸关方举办两次启发和参与性讲习班，为该项目的早期职业研究人员举办两次培训课程，内容分别是“随机森林，使用缩小的气候数据”(自上而下的方法)和“决策尺度”(自下而上的方法)，将在加纳、塞内加尔、布基纳法索和象牙海岸的四座主要大坝中与当地利益攸关方一起实施。在实施期间，该项目将通过对这三种做法的比较研究结果，促进这4个案例研究之间的交流和共同学习。该项目的目标是可持续发展目标13(气候)、可持续发展目标6(水)和可持续发展目标7(能源)之间的联系，对可持续发展目标15(土地)和可持续发展目标17(伙伴关系)产生积极影响。

Hydropower generation (HPG) represents the largest renewable electricity source with multiple purpose functions worldwide especially in WestAfrica (WA) where it contributes significantly to the energy security. However, this source is sensitive to climate change and projected HPG areassociated with uncertainties. The magnitude and the sign of projected change of HPG vary according to the river basin and country. Part ofuncertainties in the future of HPG in WA is associated with the lack of observations data which limit the calibration of models and the simulation ofhydrological dynamics and also, with uncertainties associated with climate projections used to force hydrological and water resources models. Landuse changes associated with socioeconomic development are rarely taken into account while they are crucial, especially over multi-purpose dams. Itbecomes then difficult for dam managers and local authorities to make decisions or to plan under these uncertainties in the aim to engage in a climateresilient pathway. This project aims to build communities of practice with HPG stakeholders (dam managers, local policy makers, representative ofcivil society) to address the challenges, synergies and trade-off in the climate land energy water nexus in WA for a sustainable management andplanning of HPG under a context of climate and land use changes. This will be achieved through two elicitation and participatory workshops with stakeholders, two training sessions to Early Career Researchers of the project on "Random Forest, use of downscaled climate data" (top-down methods) and "Decision Scaling" (bottom-up method) which will be implemented with local stakeholders in each of the 4 major dams in Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. During the implementation, the project will foster sharing and common learning between the 4 case studies from results of comparative study of these 3 practices. The project targets the nexus between SDG 13 (climate), 6 (water) and 7 (energy) with positive effects on SDG 15 (land) and 17 (partnership) for sustainable HPG