Reliability Analysis of High-grade Highway Network under Uncertain Environment of Snowfall And Traffic Regulation

本文主要研究高等级公路网的行程时间可靠性和连通可靠性。针对冬季降雪和交通规则不确定环境下需求和服务水平的变化，建立了出行时间可靠性评估模型。该框架考虑了天气预报影响交通管制实施的过程，以及交通管制改变出行速度的过程。建立了需求和服务不确定条件下的多层次随机模型。考虑了相邻路段之间的交通规则和行驶状态两种依赖关系。计算并比较了几条线路的行程时间可靠度，以及给定天气预报模式下正常时段和异常时段的行程时间可靠性。

This research focuses on the travel time reliability and connected reliability for a high-grade highway network. Travel time reliability assessment model is developed for the variation of both demand and service level under uncertain environment of snow fall and traffic regulation in winter season. The framework considers the process that weather forecast affects implementation of traffic control and that the traffic control changes the travel speed. A multi hierarchical stochastic model under uncertainty of demand and service is developed. Two types of dependency of both traffic regulations and driving status between adjacent sections are considered. Travel time reliabilities are calculated and compared for several routes, and for normal and abnormal period under the given weather forecast pattern.