The modeling of the future development of the mode of transport choice in everyday life using dynamic microsimulation

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The aim of the subproject is to model the future development of the choice of means of transport using dynamic microsimulation for a medium-term period. The focus is on the individual choice of means of transport for everyday travel in Germany. Based on an empirical explanatory model for transport behavior, the simulation accounts for regional disparities and demographic changes in the composition of the population. When modeling, consideration is given to the diversity of the variables which influence the choice of means of transport. Transport-related (e.g. gasoline prices or distances to work) and non-transport-related variables (e.g. socio-economic characteristics) are central. The place of residence and vehicle ownership are also included as relevant long-term determinants. The modeling is distinguished by the consideration of sociological and psychological latent explanatory factors, such as habits, attitudes, expectations or lifestyles, which have been mostly neglected in previous forecasting models for the choice of means of transport. The subproject shows that a combination of variables from traditional transport-related forecasting models with sociological explanatory factors improves the forecasting ability of models for the choice of means of transport.Using dynamic microsimulation as a forecasting technique accounts for the fact that decisions regarding transport behavior can be explained on the individual level, and that developments on higher societal levels are the result of these aggregated individual decisions. Social processes related to transport behavior in the context of arbitrarily differentiated subpopulations can thus be shown within the framework of microsimulation without having to forego modeling complex interdependent mechanisms at the level of individuals. The subproject shows, based on scenarios, which explanatory factors are particularly relevant for the further development of the choice of means of transport and under which conditions a deviation from the status quo can be expected in future developments. Particular attention is given to scenarios exploring the consequences of demographic change for the choice of means of transport and political interventions that address changed attitudes and values regarding mobility within different subpopulations. The starting point of the simulation is the basis data set, which was created in the first project phase and is to be expanded with additional mobility-related data sources.