Framework for an Earth System Reanalysis – EARTH^(RA)

地球系统再分析框架 EARTH^(RA)

• 批准号: 466492934
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Detlef Stammer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Reinhart Koselleck Projects
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/466492934?language=en
• 关键词: Framework; Earth; System; Reanalysis; EARTH

The EARTH^(RA) project will develop and apply the first framework for a dynamically consistent climate reanalysis in which mathematically rigorous, adjoint-based climate data assimilation and parameter optimization will become an integral part of coupled Earth System Models (ESM). The new EARTH^(RA) framework will advance climate modeling by overcoming the long-standing problems of model biases through parameter estimation hitherto hampering progress in climate predictions, thereby enabling the development of new climate change information through improved climate predictions needed to support decision-making.The EARTH^(RA) work program will have two major elements: (1) establishment of a novel adjoint modeling and parameter estimation framework for fully coupled ESM, required to combine non-linear ESMs with in situ and satellite data of the ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere, pioneering a fully coupled Earth system reanalysis, advancing assimilation techniques to deal with non-linearities and the chaotic nature of the coupled climate system, and enabling the use of mathematically-rigorous data assimilation approaches by advancing modern automatic differentiation tools; (2) performance of a first pilot observations-constrained Earth system reanalysis through the application of control theory to fully-coupled ESMs over a year to a decade. The framework will be used in this project to (1) objectively and transparently bring full Earth System Models (ESM) into consistency with climate observations through dynamically consistent data assimilation and parameter optimization (Earth system reanalysis), (2) study adjoint climate sensitivities and feedbacks thereby improving our understanding of the climate system and its adjustment processes. The framework will firmly be based on a new adjoint earth system model whose principle can be adopted subsequently by any modeling center. Through this novel framework, observations-informed model improvement will become a firm part of model improvement in a way that is dual/complementary to classical forward model developments.

地球^(RA)项目将为动态一致的气候再分析开发和应用第一个框架，其中数学上严格的、基于伴随的气候数据同化和参数优化将成为耦合地球系统模式(ESM)的组成部分。新的地球(RA)框架将通过克服模型偏差的长期问题来推进气候模拟，通过迄今为止阻碍气候预测进展的参数估计，从而通过改进支持决策所需的气候预测来开发新的气候变化信息。地球(RA)工作计划将包括两个主要内容：(1)建立一个新的完全耦合ESM的伴随建模和参数估计框架，要求将非线性ESMS与海洋、大气和冰冻圈的现场和卫星数据结合起来，开创完全耦合地球系统再分析的先河，推进同化技术以处理耦合气候系统的非线性和混沌性质，并通过先进的现代自动微分工具，使严格的数学数据同化方法得以使用；(2)通过将控制理论应用于完全耦合的ESM，在一年至十年内执行第一次试验性观测--受限地球系统再分析。该框架将用于(1)通过动态一致的数据同化和参数优化(地球系统再分析)，客观和透明地使完整的地球系统模式(ESM)与气候观测相一致，(2)研究伴随的气候敏感性和反馈，从而提高我们对气候系统及其调节过程的理解。该框架将坚定地基于一个新的伴随地球系统模型，该模型的原理可以被任何建模中心随后采用。通过这个新的框架，基于观测信息的模式改进将成为模式改进的坚定组成部分，其方式与经典的正演模式发展是双重/互补的。