An application of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism to environmental economics

社会代谢多尺度综合分析在环境经济学中的应用

• 批准号: 16530155
• 负责人: MAYUMI Kozo
• 金额: $ 1.22万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokushima
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16530155/
• 关键词: scaling; energy analysis; ecological economics; societal metabolism; 総合評価; スケール; 持続可能性; シナリオ分析; クズネッツ曲線; 経済のソフト化; エネルギー分析モデル

Sustainable society, if any, requires to have an integrated methodological approach that can tackle the issues of various constraints such as supply shortage of energy and mineral resources and carrying capacity. We have been engaged in developing an analytical tool called as "Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism" (MSIASM). This tool is an effective tool to explicitly analyze mutual constrains of each compartment of the system in question based on the idea of scaling that has been investigated within theoretical ecology developed by Salthe and Allen. This tool considers not only the distribution of energy among different component of the system, but also the distribution of available human time. We applied the MSIASM approach to the analysis of Chinese economy. First, we made comparison among various types of "energetic labor productivity" between China and OECD countries to investigate the pros and cons of Chinese economy. Then, we made a scenario analysis based on several different assumptions concerning the structural changes in both the population and energy consumption pattern. We have presented our results at the International Conference of European Society of Ecological Economics, held hi Lisbon, Portugal, June 2005. The part of our results is submitted to Ecological Economics for possible publication.

可持续的社会，如果有的话，需要有一个综合的方法，能够处理各种限制的问题，如能源和矿物资源供应短缺和承载能力。我们一直致力于开发一种名为“社会代谢多尺度综合分析”（MSIASM）的分析工具。这个工具是一个有效的工具，可以根据Salthe和Allen开发的理论生态学中研究的尺度思想，明确分析系统中每个隔间的相互约束。该工具不仅考虑了系统不同组成部分之间的能量分布，而且还考虑了可用人力时间的分布。我们运用MSIASM方法对中国经济进行分析。首先，对中国与经合组织国家的各类“活力劳动生产率”进行比较，考察中国经济的利与弊。在此基础上，对人口结构变化和能源消费结构变化进行了情景分析。我们在2005年6月葡萄牙里斯本举行的欧洲生态经济学会国际会议上发表了我们的研究结果。我们的部分成果已提交给《生态经济学》，可能会发表。