IP1: Reconstructing ISM and westerlies influence on Holocene hydrology, productivity and regime shifts in NW Himalaya.

IP1：重建 ISM 和西风带对喜马拉雅西北部全新世水文、生产力和政权转变的影响。

• 批准号: 495241454
• 负责人: Privatdozentin Dr. Sushma Prasad, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Mohali
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/495241454?language=en
• 关键词: IP1; Reconstructing; ISM; westerlies; influence

Climate extremes, like severe, prolonged droughts or floods can have profound ecological and socio-economic consequences. Global climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and the intensity of regional climate extremes in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) realm. Available palaeoclimate data demonstrate that tropical and extratropical forcings may show a persistently high frequency of occurrence over decades or even centuries, resulting in regional hydrology changes and ecological regime shifts. NW Himalayan region in particular has drawn attention due to increasing annual precipitation and non-stationary link of winter (westerlies) precipitation with e.g. AO/NAO and ENSO and their critical impact on the economic wellbeing of this ecologically fragile region. At present the multi-model ensemble mean simulations of temperature and precipitation with historical forcing for the period 2001–2005 are reasonable, but large differences continue to persist among the predictive models. Thus, long term (palaeo)climate data from NW Himalaya is important not just on regional scale but also to understand persistent climate extremes over the larger Indian subcontinent. Within this interdisciplinary coordinated effort, we aim to develop a comprehensive picture of Holocene climate variability over the ISM realm using a multiproxy approach on lakes (sediment cores) from climatically sensitive regions. Three closely interrelated proposals aim to (i) reconstruct spatiotemporal Holocene ISM with focus on regional extreme events; (ii) use an interdisciplinary, multiproxy approach to identify the impact of extreme events on the ecosystem; (iii) use regional patterns, data analyses and modelling to identify the forcings underlying climate extremes; and (iv) decouple human and climate impact on ecosystem.IP1 aims to (i) identify regional extreme events in the meteorological period triggered by known forcings, and reconstruct precipitation pathways and moisture sources using the HYSPLIT model for these periods. These may potentially provide analogues for Holocene extreme events; (ii) develop a record of well dated Holocene palaeoclimate (palaeohydrological) trends and productivity changes based on multiproxy investigations of catchment, modern lake sediments, and cores from Lake Manasbal (NW Himalaya, India); (iii) use a combination of regional oxygen isotope transects to identify likely precipitation sources during Holocene extreme events; (iv) identify the impact of climate/hydrological changes and anthropogenic impact on lacustrine productivity in Lake Manasbal; (v) identify leads and lags in climate induced regime shifts in the lake.

极端气候，如严重、长期的干旱或洪水，可能产生深远的生态和社会经济后果。全球气候变化预计将增加印度夏季风（ISM）区域极端气候的频率和强度。现有的古气候数据表明，热带和热带外强迫可能显示出持续的高频率发生在几十年甚至几个世纪，导致区域水文变化和生态制度的转变。特别是西北喜马拉雅地区由于年降水量增加和冬季（西风带）降水与AO/NAO和ENSO等的非固定联系及其对这一生态脆弱地区经济福祉的重要影响而引起了人们的关注。目前，2001-2005年期间的温度和降水与历史强迫的多模式集合平均模拟是合理的，但仍然存在很大的差异之间的预测模式。因此，来自喜马拉雅西北部的长期（古）气候数据不仅在区域尺度上很重要，而且对于了解更大的印度次大陆的持续极端气候也很重要。在这一跨学科的协调努力，我们的目标是开发一个全面的画面全新世气候变化的ISM领域使用多代理方法对湖泊（沉积物芯）从气候敏感地区。三项密切相关的建议旨在：（一）重建时空全新世ISM，重点是区域极端事件;（二）使用跨学科、多代理方法确定极端事件对生态系统的影响;（三）使用区域模式、数据分析和建模确定极端气候现象背后的强迫; IP 1的目标是（i）识别由已知强迫触发的气象周期内的区域极端事件，并利用HYSPLIT模式重建这些时期的降水路径和水分来源。这些可能为全新世极端事件提供潜在的类似物;（ii）建立一个完整的全新世古气候记录（古水文）趋势和生产力变化的基础上，多代理调查集水区，现代湖泊沉积物，并从马纳斯巴尔湖核心（印度喜马拉雅西北部）;（iii）结合使用区域氧同位素断面，以确定全新世极端事件期间可能的降水来源;（iv）确定气候/水文变化和人为影响对马纳斯巴尔湖湖泊生产力的影响;（v）确定气候引起的湖泊状况变化的领先和滞后。