Should I Stay or Should I Go? State Exits from Regional Organizations

英国退出欧盟（EU）最近成为头条新闻，吸引了大量公众和学术界的关注。英国脱欧并不是成员国退出区域组织（RO）的唯一例子。事实上，在1945年至2020年期间，有49次从ro中退出。研究这些退出是很重要的，因为它们可能损害国际合作，从长远来看可能引发进一步的分裂，甚至可能危及我们所知道的多边世界秩序。并不是所有的州都同样倾向于退出ro。事实上，撤资主要是由较小的州推动的。此外，虽然一些区域组织多次退出（如东部和南部非洲共同市场），但其他区域组织只退出一次（如欧盟），而其他区域组织从未失去成员（如南方共同市场）。虽然有关于IOs状态退出的研究，但主要的发现并没有传达给ro。到目前为止，我们还不知道为什么国家会退出法定代表人，以及为什么一些法定代表人比其他法定代表人更容易退出，尽管了解退出对社会和学者都非常重要。因此，本项目试图揭示国家退出ROs现象背后的原因，并解决研究问题：(1)为什么一些国家比其他国家更倾向于退出ROs ？(2)为什么一些ro比其他ro更容易出现状态退出？

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU) recently made headlines, attracting a lot of public and scholarly attention. BREXIT is not the only instance in which a member state exited a regional organization (RO). In fact, there are 49 withdrawals from ROs between the years 1945-2020. Studying these withdrawals is important as they can harm international cooperation and potentially trigger further disintegration in the longer run that could even endanger the multilateral world order as we know it. Not all states are equally inclined to leave ROs. In fact, the withdrawals from ROs are mainly driven by smaller states. Also, while some ROs were subject to several withdrawals (e.g. Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa), others experienced just one exit (e.g. the EU) and yet others never lost members (e.g. MERCOSUR). Whereas there is work on state exits from IOs, major findings, do not travel to ROs. As of yet, we do not know why states leave ROs and why some ROs are subject to more withdrawals than others, although understanding exits is of great importance for society and scholars alike. Thus, this project seeks to uncover the reasons behind the phenomenon of state exits from ROs and addresses the research questions: (1) Why are some states more inclined to exit ROs than others? (2) Why are some ROs more prone to state withdrawals than others?