Families, Housing Decisions and Housing Policies

家庭、住房决定和住房政策

• 批准号: 505641055
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Leo Kaas
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Abteilung Geld und Währung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/505641055?language=en
• 关键词: Families; Housing; Decisions; Policies

The family composition and changes thereof are key determinants of households’ housing decisions. For instance, the number and ages of children, or the co-residence with relatives affect the household’s preference for size, building type and location of the main residence. The relative scarcity of housing units for rent or sale in different housing market segments takes an impact on overall housing expenditures of the household and on its decision to own. The latter is further influenced by the household’s borrowing capacity which responds, via financial savings and labor market prospects, to current and past family events. Finally, many factual housing policies are either specifically targeted to families or vary strongly with the household composition.The goal of this research project is to examine the role of the family for households’ housing decisions and to analyze the impact of the housing market and family-housing policies on household wealth accumulation, wealth inequality, intergenerational wealth transmission and welfare. We will develop a structural equilibrium model in which households decide about housing, consumption and labor supply while the family composition varies over the lifecycle. Specifically, we consider a stochastic aging model in which individuals experience marriage, divorce and childbirth events. Next to an aggregate production sector, housing supply is endogenous, so that the house price, the rental rate and the housing stock respond to policy changes. The model will be calibrated to replicate the main relationships between family type, income and housing of households in Germany. The calibrated model will be used to investigate the distributional and welfare impact of housing policies on different household types. We further conduct an empirical evaluation of the impact of housing policies, such as the abolishment of the German first-time home buyer allowance in the year 2005, using causal inference methods and compare the model’s predictions to our empirical findings.

家庭组成及其变化是家庭住房决定的关键决定因素。例如，子女的数量和年龄，或与亲戚同住，影响到家庭对主要住所的大小、建筑类型和地点的偏好。在不同的住房市场部门，出租或销售的住房单元相对稀少，这对家庭的总体住房支出及其拥有住房的决定产生了影响。后者进一步受到家庭借贷能力的影响，这种能力通过财政储蓄和劳动力市场前景对当前和过去的家庭事件作出反应。最后，实际的住宅政策中，有许多是以家庭为对象的，也有许多是因家庭的构成而变化很大的。本研究的目的是考察家庭在住宅决策中的作用，分析住宅市场和住宅政策对家庭财富积累、财富不平等、财富代际传递和福利的影响。我们将开发一个结构均衡模型，其中家庭决定住房，消费和劳动力供应，而家庭组成在生命周期中发生变化。具体来说，我们考虑一个随机老化模型，其中个人经历婚姻，离婚和生育事件。住房供应仅次于总生产部门，是内生的，因此房价、租金和住房存量对政策变化作出反应。将对该模型进行校准，以复制德国家庭类型、收入和住房之间的主要关系。校准后的模型将用于研究住房政策对不同家庭类型的分配和福利影响。我们进一步进行实证评估的住房政策的影响，如在2005年取消德国首次购房者津贴，使用因果推理方法和比较模型的预测，我们的实证研究结果。