Building an evidence-base for deforestation-free landscapes: supporting equitable outcomes in and beyond commodity supply-chains

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There is an urgent need to transform global food systems, which currently are major contributors to climate change, biodiversity loss, and fail to provide nutritious diets for all. Not the least, the production, trade and consumption of palm oil, soy, beef, cocoa and other agricultural commodities are driving the loss of tropical forests and other natural ecosystems, through the expansion of cropland and pastures. In response, recent years have seen a groundswell of commitments from companies, finance actors and governments to sever the link between food supply-chains and deforestation. Yet, these pledges have failed to deliver and commodity-driven deforestation remains stubbornly high in the tropics. To reverse this trend, we aim to - together with public and private sector decision makers, practitioners, and local stakeholders - co-create a robust analytical framework for assessing the effectiveness and equity of policies to halt commodity-driven deforestation. This framework will rest on clearly defined theories of change - identified in collaboration with stakeholders - which elucidate causal mechanisms, enabling factors and barriers for policies to reduce deforestation. We will analyze a broad range of strategies for promoting deforestation-free supply-chains, from interventions aiming to reduce or shift demand (e.g., lowering consumption or changing sourcing) to initiatives targeting supply-chain actors (e.g., certification, due diligence, jurisdictional approaches, or technical support to farmers). We aim to develop a framework that allows for a system-wide assessment of such interventions and initiatives across different sustainability domains: environmental, social and economic. Finally, drawing upon state-of-the-art data and methods, the analytical framework will be used to evaluate existing supply-chains initiatives for key commodities and countries (e.g., palm oil is Indonesia, cocoa in Cameroon, and soy or beef in Brazil), providing an informed portfolio of policy options for promoting deforestation-free commodity landscapes.