Lucky in Love: the role of chance in sexual selection

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Is luck important in the lives of animals? This project aims to ascertain how much variation in male mating success is attributable to male quality, traits or resources and how much is attributable to luck. Mating is the most important evolutionary process. Male mating success should be highly predictable: males with the best genes, most preferred displays or highest quality resources should attract females. Male mating success is, however, surprisingly difficult to predict and we currently write off up to 90 per cent of the variance as noise. This project aims to quantify the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic sources of variation in male mating success. Ignored variance may be an untapped opportunity to understand selection.