How to Reduce the Investment Dilemma? - A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of International Electricity Market Designs

大约15年来，国际电力市场一直在进行重组。在这个研究项目中，我们的目标是确定电力市场设计的潜在改进。我们将集中分析这些制度如何为减少投资困境创造机会和激励。如果对发电能力的基本投资明显推迟，因为价格信号并不表明长期的产能短缺，就会出现这种困境。在这个项目中，我们分析了基于市场和监管的解决方案，以减少投资困境。在以市场为基础的解决方案方面，我们打算分析和评估远期市场的价格信号。因此，我们开发了一个考虑电价特殊特征的现货市场模型。为了获得对冲特定投资风险的动态投资组合，我们在现货市场模型的基础上评估了合适的衍生品（特别是外来期权）的价格。在监管干预方面，我们将重点研究欧洲二氧化碳配额交易计划，将其作为创造投资激励的新机会，例如通过有效的免费配额分配系统。

For about 15 years, a restructuring of international electricity markets has been taking place. In this research project, we aim to identify potential improvements for electricity market designs. We concentrate on analysing how these systems create opportunities and incentives for reducing the investment dilemma. Such a dilemma exists if essential investments in generating capacity are delayed significantly, because price signals do not indicate a long-run shortfall of capacity. In this project, we analyse both market-based and regulatory solutions for reducing the investment dilemma.With respect to market-based solutions, we intend to analyse and evaluate price signals in the forward market. Therefore, we develop a spot market model that considers the particular characteristics of electricity prices. In order to derive dynamic portfolios for hedging specific investment risks, we evaluate the prices of suitable derivatives (especially exotic options) on the basis of the spot market model. With respect to regulatory interventions, we concentrate on investigating the European CO2-alIowance trading scheme as a new opportunity for creating investment incentives, for instance through efficient systems of free allowance-allocation.