The relevance of dynamic belief updating to emerging psychopathology during adolescence

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Background: Many major mental disorders begin during adolescence. Adolescence is a transitional period characterized by orientation towards peers, neural reorganization and increased neural plasticity in the locus coeruleus, a key structure for arousal modulation, evidence accumulation and dynamic belief updating (DynBU). The concomitant neurocognitive and environmental changes render adolescents vulnerable to developing mental health conditions. Aims and objectives: To increase our understanding of the role of DynBU in interaction with social context for the development of psychopathology in adolescence, we will examine DynBU and the hypothesized underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (surprise, phasic pupil-linked arousal, network reset) alone and in combination with contextual factors. We will test for the predictive value of alterations of DynBU on core psychopathological dimensions that emerge during adolescence and include internalizing symptoms (e.g., anxiety, depression), disinhibited externalizing symptomatology (e.g., attention deficit, substance use) and thought disorder (e.g., psychotic symptoms). Hypotheses: (1) Compared to adults, the neurocognitive mechanisms of DynBU in adolescence will reflect giving stronger-than-normative weight to newly encountered observations, resulting in stronger belief updates in response to environmental change, a tendency we expect to be amplified in rewarding and social contexts; (2) Alterations in DynBU during adolescence are associated with psychopathology and predict the onset or increase of psychopathology over time; (3) The expected higher responsiveness to environmental change and its modulation by rewarding and social contexts during adolescence increases vulnerability to the development of psychopathology in detrimental environmental contexts. Planned methods: Two samples will be recruited: adolescents (age 12-17, n = 300) and adults (age 25-30, n = 100). The first laboratory session includes a baseline assessment of psychopathology, arousal, and the standard change-point task used in the Research Unit. In a second session, participants will complete the diagnostic assessment and conduct task variants with experimental variations of reward and social context. Computational parameters of DynBU (relative and unexpected uncertainty) and psychophysiological parameters (via EEG and pupil response) will be measured. Experience sampling will be used to assess real-life social and reward contexts between the sessions over the course of one week. To examine the predictive validity of the neurocognitive indicators of DynBU for psychopathology, the mental status will be re-assessed after 6, 12 and 18 months. Expected impact: The results will provide important insight into the relationship between DynBU and emerging psychopathology during adolescence and promise to offer novel starting points for preventive interventions.