Theoretical and empirical research for making and using Economic Statistics

经济统计的制作和使用的理论和实证研究

• 批准号: 03301077
• 负责人: HIROMATSU Takeshi
• 金额: $ 3.71万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1991 至 1992
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-03301077/
• 关键词: Official statistics; Long-term planning of statistical system; Cycle of statistical survey; Statistical survey of private sector; Business data; Standard statistical classification; National census survey; Aggravation of statistical environment; 統

Economic statistics are very important in analysising the real world economy properly. But it seems to us that there are many empirical researches which applied several statistical methods mechanically without deep understanding about there inherent problems of statistical data. The Japanese society has been drastically changing mainly due to rapid informatization and internationalization. This causes serious problems in economic statistics, which can be thought as away of describing the situation of society as a whole. We need, therefore, to investigate and scrutinize such problems and to seek for means of their solutions and future image of economic statistics.The main reason for these problems is no intimate communication exits between makers and users of economic statistics. Based on the recognition that this is one of the key issues in the field of economics and statistics, our project mainly focuses on the next three points: (1) clarify the current problems of statistical system … More in European and Asian countries, (2) reinvestigate the specific problem of national census surveys and public opinion research from the point of view of statistical survey theory, and (3) clarify the current status of all kinds of the survey statistics of private organization.The main points which we have gotten from our research so far can be summarized in the followings:(a) The existing economic statistics are now suffering many problems, which came from the traditional and rather rigid system of classification (on industry, occupation and commodity). Therefore, we need a new classification system reflecting "informatization" and "internationalization" of the society.(b) The censuses and sample surveys, which give us the first original data, are now getting more difficult because of people's consciousness of privacy and changing social environment. We need to reconsider the statistical system as a whole so as to fit this environment.(c) From users' viewpoint, these days, too many statistics are now being reported and their reporting system is too complicated to understand the features and scope of each data and the interrelationship among them. We need some good "Guidebook of Economic Statistics" which is easily understandable.(d) The sample survey conducted by private organization has many prominent features; covering wide area, some of which official statistics fail to cover and grasping the actual conditions.It is very urgent for us to improve and develop statistical techniques suitable for the analysis on economic statistics which are drastically changing. Less

经济统计在正确分析真实的世界经济方面非常重要。但是，在实证研究中，我们发现，许多实证研究都是机械地使用几种统计方法，而没有深入理解统计数据本身存在的问题。日本社会正在急剧变化，主要是由于迅速的信息化和国际化。这给经济统计带来了严重问题，因为经济统计可以被认为没有描述整个社会的状况。因此，我们有必要对这些问题进行调查和研究，并寻求解决这些问题的方法和经济统计的未来形象。这些问题的主要原因是经济统计的编制者和使用者之间缺乏密切的沟通。基于认识到这是经济学和统计学领域的关键问题之一，我们的项目主要围绕以下三点展开：（1）厘清统计制度目前存在的问题 ...更多信息 （2）从统计调查理论的角度重新审视国家人口普查和民意研究的具体问题;（3）厘清民间组织各类调查统计的现状。（a）现有的经济统计数字现在遇到许多问题，这些问题来自传统和相当严格的分类制度（关于工业、职业和商品）。因此，我们需要一个新的分类系统，反映社会的“信息化”和“国际化”。(b)人口普查和抽样调查是第一批原始数据，但由于人们隐私意识的增强和社会环境的变化，普查和抽样调查的难度越来越大。我们需要重新考虑整个统计系统，以适应这种环境。(c)从用户的角度来看，目前报告的统计数字太多，报告系统太复杂，无法了解每一项数据的特点和范围以及它们之间的相互关系。我们需要一些好的“经济统计指南”，这是容易理解的。(d)民间抽样调查具有覆盖面广、官方统计无法覆盖、掌握实际情况等突出特点，迫切需要改进和发展适应经济统计分析变化的统计技术。少

项目成果

Shirabe,M., Hiromatsu,and G.Oohira: "Churyuishiki-to-Syohikodo" Kakei-Keizai-Kenkyu. 14. 25-33 (1992)

Shirabe,M.、Hiromatsu 和 G.Oohira：“Churyuishiki-to-Syohikodo”Kakei-Keizai-Kenkyu。

廣松 毅,浪花 貞夫: "『経済時系列分析の基飾と応用ー非定常モデルの応用ー』" 多賀出版, 267 (1993)

Takeshi Hiromatsu、Sadao Naniwa：《经济时间序列分析的基础和应用 - 非稳态模型的应用》Taga Publishing，267 (1993)

吉岡 宇治,早見 均,池田 明由,菅 幹雄: "「環境分析用産業連関表の応用-生産活動に伴うCO_2の排出量とその要因-」" 『イノベーション&I-Oテクニーク』. 3-4. (1992)

Uji Yoshioka、Hitoshi Hayami、Akiyoshi Ikeda、Mikio Suga：“‘投入产出表在环境分析中的应用 - 与生产活动及其因素相关的 CO_2 排放’”创新与 I-O 技术 (1992)。

廣松 毅: "経済分析とベイズ統計学" 月刊ESP.3月号. 24-28 (1992)

Takeshi Hiromatsu：《经济分析和贝叶斯统计》月刊 ESP，3 月 24-28 日（1992 年）。

美添 泰人: ""Levarage Points in Nonlinear Regression Model"" 日本統計学会誌. 21-1. 1-11 (1991)

Yasuto Misoe：“非线性回归模型中的杠杆点”日本统计学会杂志 21-1（1991）。