Research on Informatization of Industries and its Effects on Performances since 1985 : An Empirical Analysis including International Comparisons

在美国，自20世纪80年代末以来，一直在讨论所谓的“生产力平价”。然而，美国的经济表现自20世纪90年代初以来经历了长达9年的经济繁荣，这些天的讨论似乎结束了。但是，在日本，由于经济持续低迷，即使是民间企业的高层也面临着是否应该投资IT（Information Technology）的非常困难的决策问题。本研究首先分析了日本产业信息化的现状，然后分析了IT对各产业生产率的影响。在分析中，我们定义了“信息化投资”、“信息化股票”及其“松弛”的概念，并利用通产省官方公布的数据进行了估算。并运用增长核算和EDA方法，（包络数据分析）对新定义的数据，我们初步得出如下结论：（1）1990 ~ 1994年，纺织、造纸、机械等7个行业的信息化投资对生产率的提高没有贡献;（2）1990 ~ 1994年，部分行业的信息化投资不足，从这些初步的结论来看，至少在1994年以前，日本的许多产业都存在着“生产率平价”现象。金融和保险业是个例外，至少在1988- 1989年期间，由于信息化投资，该行业的生产率得到了提高。

In the United States, the so-called "Productivity Paradox" has been discussed since the late 1980's. U.S. economic performance, however, has experienced a 9-year long economic boom since early 1990's, and the discussions seem to end these days. But, in Japan, mainly due to a prolonged economic slump, even top executives of private companies are now facing a very difficult decision problem whether they should invest in IT (Information Technology) or not.In this research; we first analyzed present situations of informatization of industries in Japan, and then effectiveness of IT on productivity industry by industry. In the analysis, we defined concepts of "Informatized Investment," "Informatized Stock," and its "Slack", and estimated them by making use of MITI's officially published data. And, applying methods of growth accounting and EDA (Envelope Data Analysis) to the newly defined data, we have reached tentative conclusions as follows : (1) in 7 industries including Textile, Pulp and Paper, machine r y, Informatized investment did not contribute increase in productivity during 1990-94, (2) during the same period, Slacks on Inforrnatized capital were observed in several industries, which means that inefficiencies existed in these industries.From these tentative conclusions, we can say that, in Japan, "Productivity Paradox" prevailed in many industries at least until 1994. The exception is the case of Finance and Insurance industry in the sense that industry enjoyed the increase in productivity due to Informatized Investment at least during 1988-89.