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A Longitudinal Analysis on Car Ownership and Its Use Based on Life Cycle in Household

基于家庭生命周期的汽车保有量及使用情况纵向分析

基本信息

批准号：
06650584
负责人：
AOSHIMA Naojiro
金额：
$ 1.34万
依托单位：
Gunma University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1994
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1994 至 1996
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-06650584/
关键词：
car ownership and its use life cycle longitudinal analysis decision making process dynamic model disaggregate model

项目摘要

Car ownership has been considered as one of the key determinants of travel behavior and included virtually in every model of trip generation and mode choice. In the beginning of car ownership boom, the first private car was mainly a piece of household level equipment. But, with the development of the second car in the area of low dense and dispersed urban functions in particular, car use and purchase becomes more individual in household.In order to analyze household's behavior of car ownership and its use, this study proposes the framework, in which the relationship among car ownership, car use and life cycle in household is dynamically analyzed. The results of analyzing the longitudinal car ownership are as follows. Firstly, in the case of choice on the number of cars dynamic dummy variables of life cycle in nousehold influence multi-car ownership of household. Secondly, in the case of choice on the time of increasing the car it is not easy to take an efficient model. Finally, the framework proposed in this study is effective for dynamic analysis on the structure of multi-car ownership of household. Standing on these viewpoints, this study has developed a dynamic model on car ownership and its use based on life cycle in household by using disaggregate model.

汽车拥有量一直被认为是出行行为的关键决定因素之一，几乎包括在每一种出行模式和出行方式选择中。在汽车拥有热潮之初，第一辆私家车主要是一件家用级设备。但是，随着二手车在城市低密度和分散性地区的发展，汽车的使用和购买在家庭中变得更加个性化，为了分析家庭的汽车拥有和使用行为，本研究提出了一个动态分析家庭汽车保有量、汽车使用和家庭生命周期关系的框架。对纵向汽车保有量的分析结果如下。首先，在汽车保有量选择的情况下，实体生命周期的动态虚拟变量会影响家庭的多车拥有量。其次，在选择增加汽车的时间的情况下，要采取高效的车型并非易事。最后，本文提出的研究框架对多车家庭结构的动态分析是有效的。基于这些观点，本研究利用非集计模型建立了基于家庭生命周期的汽车保有量和使用量的动态模型。