Rural Depopulation Analyses Using A Dynamic Out/In-Migration Model

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Rural (agricultural and mountainous) depopulation problems in Japan are caused by the over-outmigration into urban areas. The primal factors of the outmigration are not only the rural socioeconomic conditions such as labor and dwelling environments but also the commuting accessibility to urban areas. The over-outmigration does not occur when the commuting accessibility is high, even if the rural socioeconomic conditions are inferior, since they can enjoy the good socioeconomic conditions in urban areas easily. On the other hand, the urban inhabitants who had inmigrated from rural areas will return to their native rural areas, if the rural socioeconomic conditions or the commuting accessibility are improved.The out/in-migration of a person from a rural area is baesd on the evaluation of such his/her life environments. Its process is dynamic and different from each other according to his/her life cycle stage and individual attributes. The effects of countermeasures for rural depopulation problems should be estimated by amount of out/in-migration through such decision making process. Standing on these viewpoints, we have developed a Dynamic Out/ In-Migration Model by using Dimension-Nested and Time-Nested Logit Model.