Rural Depopulation Analyses Using A Dynamic Out/In-Migration Model

使用动态迁出/迁入模型进行农村人口减少分析

• 批准号: 02805063
• 负责人: AOSHIMA Naojiro
• 金额: $ 1.28万
• 依托单位: Gunma University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1990 至 1992
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-02805063/
• 关键词: rural depopulation problems; out; in-migration; life cycle stage; decision making process; dynamic model; disaggregate model; 計画評価; 社会基盤; 過疎地域; 人口流出; 人口帰還; ライフサイクルステ-ジ; 居住地・従業地選択行動; 非集計行動モデル; ライフステ-ジ

Rural (agricultural and mountainous) depopulation problems in Japan are caused by the over-outmigration into urban areas. The primal factors of the outmigration are not only the rural socioeconomic conditions such as labor and dwelling environments but also the commuting accessibility to urban areas. The over-outmigration does not occur when the commuting accessibility is high, even if the rural socioeconomic conditions are inferior, since they can enjoy the good socioeconomic conditions in urban areas easily. On the other hand, the urban inhabitants who had inmigrated from rural areas will return to their native rural areas, if the rural socioeconomic conditions or the commuting accessibility are improved.The out/in-migration of a person from a rural area is baesd on the evaluation of such his/her life environments. Its process is dynamic and different from each other according to his/her life cycle stage and individual attributes. The effects of countermeasures for rural depopulation problems should be estimated by amount of out/in-migration through such decision making process. Standing on these viewpoints, we have developed a Dynamic Out/ In-Migration Model by using Dimension-Nested and Time-Nested Logit Model.

日本的农村（农业和山区）人口减少问题是由于向城市地区过度外迁造成的。农村人口外迁的主要因素不仅是农村的社会经济条件，如劳动环境和居住环境，还包括与城市的交通可达性。当交通通达性高时，即使农村社会经济条件较差，也不会发生过度外迁，因为他们可以很容易地享受到城市地区良好的社会经济条件。另一方面，如果农村的社会经济条件或通勤可达性得到改善，从农村迁入的城市居民将返回原住地。一个人从农村地区迁出/迁入取决于对他/她的生活环境的评估。其过程是动态的，且因其生命周期阶段和个体属性的不同而各不相同。通过这种决策过程，应对农村人口减少问题的对策的效果应以迁出/迁入的数量来估计。基于这些观点，我们使用维嵌套和时间嵌套的Logit模型开发了动态迁出/迁入模型。

项目成果

青島 縮次郎,磯部 反彦,高橋 慶子: "世帯のライフサイクルステージから見た自動車免許保有者と非保有者の交通行動分析" 地域学研究. 22-1. 151-165 (1992)

Shujiro Aoshima、Fumihiko Isobe、Keiko Takahashi：“从家庭生命周期阶段角度分析汽车驾照持有者和非驾照持有者的交通行为”，区域研究，151-165（1992）。

N.Aoshima, T.Isobe, and K.Takahashi: "Travel Behavior Analysis of the Licensed and the Unlicensed by Life Cycle Stages in Households (in Japanese)" Studies in Regional Science. Vol.22,No.1. 151-165 (1992)

N.Aoshima、T.Isobe 和 K.Takahashi：“按家庭生命周期阶段划分的持证和未持证者的旅行行为分析（日语）”区域科学研究。

N.Aoshima, T.Isobe, and K.Aikawa: "Mobility of the Elderly in Japan's Depopulated Areas" the wheel extended. No.79. 27-32 (1992)

N.Aoshima、T.Isobe 和 K.Aikawa：“日本人口稀少地区老年人的流动性”轮子延长了。

N.Aoshima, T.Isobe, M.Miyazaki, and H.Yasumura: "A Factor Analysis on Multi-Car Ownership of Household (in Japanese)" Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning. No.15(1)-2. 755-760 (1992)

N.Aoshima、T.Isobe、M.Miyazaki 和 H.Yasumura：“家庭拥有多辆汽车的因素分析（日语）”基础设施规划论文集。

青島 縮次郎,磯部 友彦,相川 勝浩: "山間過疎地域における自動車の相乗りおよび送迎に関する調査分析" 交通工学研究発表会論文集. 11. 53-56 (1991)

青岛修二郎、矶部智彦、相川胜宏：“人口稀少山区拼车和上下车的调查与分析”交通工程研究会议论文集11. 53-56（1991）。